FINSUM

FINSUM

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(New York)

In a stat that should absolutely terrify small broker-dealers, a new survey says that for small firms, Reg BI compliance may cost a large portion of your revenue every year. According to the National Society of Compliance Professionals, a small firm with $500,000 in net capital will need to pay $60,000 a year to comply with the new rule. Bigger firms have high costs too—Raymond James will spend $20m up front, and then another $5m per year to comply.


FINSUM: $60,000 a year is a lot of cost to bear for smaller firms, especially because this regulation does not expand business opportunities and will likely only shrink revenue for many.

Thursday, 30 April 2020 10:54

A Big Muni Market Test is Coming

(Chicago)

The muni market is at an interesting crossroads. There have been big fears that the current lockdown might be a huge negative for muni credits. The lockdown not only raises costs, but it constrains tax revenue at the same time. On its own, this is a big threat. However, the Fed has set up a liquidity facility particularly for states and municipalities to borrow, which is a major help. That said, analysts say some credits will be excluded. The problem is that the Fed has put limits on the size of cities and counties able to participate, as well as fairly onerous language, such as municipalities having to promise that they cannot “secure adequate credit accommodations from other banking institutions”.


FINSUM: The Fed’s restrictions on this program are surely going to constrain its efficacy. So, on the whole this seems like good news, but not as good as investors would like.

Thursday, 30 April 2020 10:53

Job Losses hit 30m

(New York)

The job losses keep coming week over week. Thursday morning has become a repetitive and gloomy event as millions of job losses hit the tape when weekly jobless claims are released. This morning the figure was 3.3m. That number means the total figure is now over 30m jobs lost in the last six weeks. The fastest drop in history by a gigantic margin. What is even more troubling is that the data underrepresents the true figure, as call centers have been unable to cope with the demand and thus have been underreporting true figures.


FINSUM: The job loss figures are absolutely staggering. California is paying $1bn in jobless insurance per day. We think the market is underestimating how deep of a recession this hit to consumer spending might represent.

COVID Loan Tracker was founded by small business owners to help fellow entrepreneurs understand when their PPP and EIDL loans will be paid. The SBA has provided very poor leadership and information, and the need for real data about when loans are actually being disbursed has never been higher. Please help yourself and fellow small business owners by filling out our survey so we can all understand when we will get our loans.

FILL OUT THE SURVEY TO HELP SMALL BUSINESS OWNERS

The SBA has been very short on details throughout the Paycheck Protection Program. While they have released “approval” numbers, there is no data on how many loans have actually been disbursed. If you are a small business owner, approval means nothing and disbursement means everything—you cannot pay employees with an approval, you need cash. With that min mind, COVID Loan Tracker has launched live stats which track the disbursement rate of PPP loans right on its home page.

You can instantly see what percent of loans have been disbursed, the median processing time, the total volume of loans processed, the median size of loan, the median employees of successful applicants and more. For a deeper dive, view the DATA page, which includes more in-depth charting.

And if you still need to apply for PPP, you can do it here.

Tuesday, 28 April 2020 14:57

Goldman’s Best Stocks for the Recovery

(New York)

So who is going to benefit most in the inevitable reopening of the economy? It is a tricky question to sort out. The most obvious companies are already seeing very stretched valuations, so those probably aren’t a good buy. Accordingly, here are some interesting names to look at in a category Goldman Sachs is calling “quality-at-a-reasonable-price”: Texas Instruments, Facebook, Mastercard, Alphabet, Home Depot, Ross Stores, Colgate-Palmolive.


FINSUM: Nice range of names. On the tech side, we love Facebook and Google. They are going to make more and more money as this lockdown accelerates the shift to ecommerce. On the retail side, discount stores like Ross seem like a good bet.

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