Displaying items by tag: indicators

Wednesday, 08 August 2018 09:16

The Eight Best Market Predictors

(New York)

There are a lot of articles discussing data points which can help investors predict markets. Most have some value in them (though not all). In this vein, the Wall Street Journal has done some digging to assemble the eight best historical market signals. The first thing to know is that all eight predictors, each of which has a great track record, show that market returns over the next decade will be below average. Even the most bullish of the group says that returns will be way below what they have been over the last decade. Some of the eight predictors include the Household Equity Allocation, the Q Ratio, the Buffett Indicator, the CAPE, and the Dividend Yield. The Household Equity Allocation has historically been the most accurate, as households tend to have the highest allocation to stocks right before a crash.


FINSUM: That is quite a data set stacking up against the market. We expect a rough market and a recession within 18 months, but the gains until then could be good.

Published in Eq: Large Cap
Thursday, 29 March 2018 06:46

The Bear Market May Have Just Arrived

(New York)

It is not pleasant to think about, but investors may need to face reality—the bear market may have arrived this winter. Stocks are already well into a correction and the immediate path forward doesn’t seem bright. All that said, not all the indicators are showing a bear market to come. Bank of America has assembled 19 indicators which have forecasted bear markets in the past. Right now, only 13 of the 19 indicators have been tripped, meaning the market may have room to move higher. While 13 out of 19 may sound high, this level was usually reached two years before the peak in prices in previous bear markets.


FINSUM: If you buy into these types of indicators, the big x-factor is how quickly the other 6 could be tripped. The big problem, of course, is that the returns at the end of a bull market tend to be the strongest, so one does not want to take all their chips off the table.

Published in Eq: Large Cap

Contact Us

Newsletter

Subscribe

Subscribe to our daily newsletter

Top
We use cookies to improve our website. By continuing to use this website, you are giving consent to cookies being used. More details…