Displaying items by tag: fixed income

We are nearing the end of one of the most aggressive periods of monetary tightening in history. Since March 2022, the Federal Reserve has hiked 11 times, sending the benchmark rate above 5%. At the latest FOMC meeting, Chair Powell left room open for more hikes if necessary, but the overall message was that inflation was moving closer to desired levels, while the economy remained resilient. 

Most market participants are now focused on the Fed pivoting and cutting rates sometime in 2024. Therefore, it wouldn’t be prudent to hold off on investing in an annuity or other sort of fixed interest investments in the hopes of securing higher rates. In fact, we are starting to see cuts on some annuities for the first time in years, following the recent decline in longer-term yields

For most of the year, ‘higher for longer’ has been the prevailing narrative. Yet, there are many indications that we are in the final innings of the hiking cycle such as a cooling labor market and moderation in inflation. Additionally, public comments from Fed officials have indicated the need to cut rates if inflation does moderate to keep real rates from climbing even further. 

Currently, annuities are at their highest payout rates in decades. Given the likelihood that we are in the midst of a Fed pivot, prospective buyers of annuities should take advantage of these attractive rates before they start to drop. 

Finsum: Fixed annuities are quite attractive given the current level of rates. Yet, there are some signs that interest rates are going to turn lower which means that this is an opportune time to invest in an annuity.  

Until a couple of decades ago, investors had few options when it came to asset classes. Since then, there has been an increase in the number of investable asset classes including REITs, commodities, currencies, etc. Yet so many of these have failed to provide sufficient diversification, especially during down markets.

Investors should consider fixed annuities as they offer capital protection guaranteed returns, and income regardless of market conditions. Thus, they are a way to generate income during retirement and also increase the resilience of portfolios. 

Unlike fixed income, fixed annuities do not fluctuate in value depending on interest rates or other factors. Fixed annuities always have a positive, guaranteed return. When evaluating their portfolios, investors should consider market risk, credit risk, longevity risk, and liquidity risk. 

A fixed annuity reduces a portfolio’s market risk due to there being a guaranteed return and no risk of loss of principal. It also leads to lower credit risk given that annuity providers have superior credit ratings. Longevity risk is also reduced given that annuities provide payments for life. There is a tradeoff in terms of liquidity risk as money invested in an annuity is not easily accessible.

Finsum: Fixed annuities can lead to more resilient portfolios. Although there is a tradeoff in terms of liquidity, it can reduce a portfolios’ market, credit, and longevity risks. 

There was strength across the board in fixed income following an inflation report that continued last month’s cooling trend and a dovish FOMC meeting. The yield on the 10-Y was 27 basis points lower, while the yield on the 2-Y dropped by 36 basis points. 

The November CPI report showed a monthly gain of 0.1% for the headline figure which was in-line with expectations and a slight increase from last month’s unchanged print. Core CPI came in at 3.1% on an annual basis which was consistent with expectations. Overall, the report indicates that inflation continues to moderate and is getting closer to the Fed’s desired levels.

While fixed income rallied following the CPI, the rally accelerated following the dovish FOMC meeting and press conference. The Fed held rates steady but surprised markets as it now expects 3 rate cuts in 2024. It also downgraded its 2024 inflation forecast to 2.4% from 2.6%. 

In his press conference, Chair Powell affirmed progress on inflation and noted that the economy was slowing in recent months especially from Q3’s rapid pace. He added that high rates were negatively impacting business investment and the housing market. Markets jumped on his remark that further rate hikes were ‘not likely’ although possible if necessary. 

Finsum: Treasury yields were sharply lower following a soft CPI report and dovish FOMC meeting. Stocks and bonds were bought higher as the Fed is now forecasting 3 rate cuts in 2024. 

A sizzling rally in stocks and bonds is leading investors to scoop up ETFs. In November, the iShares 20+ Yr. Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) was up 9.9%, while the Morningstar Global Markets Index, a gauge for global equities, was up 9.2%. 

The major driver of the rally is increased optimism about interest rates given positive news regarding inflation while the economy continues to avoid a recession. This means the biggest gains were found in interest-rate sensitive sectors which have been among the most battered since the Fed embarked on tightening policy early in 2022. 

There were also $110 billion inflows into US ETFs with $77 billion going into equities and $31 billion into fixed income ETFs. This was a 1.6% increase from last month and total ETF flows should easily exceed $500 billion, setting a new record. Fixed income ETFs saw a 2.2% growth rate on a monthly basis and inflows are up 14.3% compared to last year, exceeding equities’ growth rate of 5.6%. 

Active ETFs continue to grow and account for $21 billion of inflows. YTD, total inflows are $116 billion which exceeds $90 billion in 2022. Some areas of growth in the segment are alternative assets and inverse funds. 

Finsum: 2023 is set to be a record year in terms of ETF inflows. Fixed income ETFs and active funds are two of the biggest areas of growth. 

Treasury yields were higher following the November jobs report which showed a bigger than expected decline in the unemployment rate. The report suggests that the labor market remains tight which could prolong the Fed’s hiking cycle. However, the bulk of the gain in yields was given up in ensuing sessions as traders remain more focused on weakening inflation and softer economic growth.

According to the Labor Department, the US economy added 199,000 jobs in November which was just above consensus expectations of 190,000 jobs added and an improvement from an increase of 150,000 jobs in October. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.7% below consensus expectations of 3.9%. Some note that the report was helped by auto and entertainment workers returning to work after strikes. 

Some traders are looking for labor market weakness as the next impetus for the Fed to shift its policy. Clearly, this report dispelled notions that the economy is contracting and provides more ammunition for the ‘soft landing’ hypothesis. 

Wage growth also moderated to fall to 0.4% monthly and 4% on an annual basis. In terms of the economy, government and healthcare were the biggest sources of jobs growth, while the retail sector and transportation & warehousing shed the most jobs.

Finsum: Treasury yields were slightly higher following the November jobs report which came in stronger than expectations.