If you are considering going independent, Charles Schwab has an interesting new survey for you. Thousands of advisors have been flowing out of wirehouses and large regional brokerages over the last few years. They have either gone completely independent or joined independent broker-dealers. In either case, a new survey from Charles Schwab shows that such advisors are very happy. In fact, 90% of advisors who have gone independent report that they have no regrets about their choice to go it alone.
FINSUM: The reality is that most advisors say that whether you become an RIA or go to an IBD, you can serve clients better and make more money at the same time. The general opinion is that with an RIA you lose a lot of structural support, but you keep everything for yourself; while with an IBD you keep more structural support and still get much higher payouts than at a wire.
Joe Biden’s bid for the presidency has already been an interesting one. His campaign launched with a lot of attention and support and then faded for awhile, only to hold surprisingly steady since. He doesn’t get as much focus as Warren and Buttigieg, but he has a sustained following. Now it looks like he might jump ahead in the polls. Biden has had decent support from the African-American community and with Kamala Harris ending her campaign, he is likely to get her substantial following behind his own bid.
FINSUM: Harris was carrying about 3.7% support among Democrats. Most of that will likely go to Biden, helping his chances.
Deutsche Bank has just gone on the record with a bold prognostication. The bank says that the global economy is “bottoming out”. While that may sound grave without further context, what Deutsche actually means is that the global economy has already seen the worst of the current downturn. The bank expects that the world’s economy will be improving next year, meaning we may have finally turned the corner on slowdown fears. “Key to our optimism is that the risks of trade wars and Brexit are evolving in positive ways, and the possibility of a radical policy shift to the far left in the U.S. and the U.K. after their respective elections seems remote”, says Deutsche Bank’s research team.
FINSUM: So did we just go through a “recession” and now the economy and market are ready to turn the jets back on? Quite optimistic (especially after a 25% gain in the S&P this year), but not altogether unlikely.
Analysts from across the Street have now put their predictions in for 2020, and the outlook is not as rosy as one would expect from a bunch of analysts who get paid to be bullish. The consensus outlook for equities can best be described as “meeehhh”. Morgan Stanley, UBS, and Stifel are forecasting that the S&P 500 will fall next year, while Citi, BAML, and Goldman are forecasting rises, but modest ones (single digits at the high end). Taken as an average, analysts think stocks will rise just 3% next year.
FINSUM: A published 3% forecasted rise by Wall Street research analysts feels more like they are expecting a 10% loss.
Retail is a hard sector to invest in right now. Generally speaking it seems better to buy into broad retailers like Walmart or Target than into clothing specialists like Gap, and discount retailers seem better than traditional, but the whole industry is a battlefield. With that in mind, here is a good stock to look at: Tanger Outlets (SKT). The REIT owns 39 discount malls across the US and has a cheap valuation that seems to have suffered simply from being in the sector. The company is not financially distressed and sports a 96% occupancy rate at its malls. It is trading at about half the valuation of some other popular REITs and sports a hefty 9%+ yield. Because it is in the outlet mall space, it faces considerably less turmoil than traditional malls.
FINSUM: You probably saw a Tanger last time you were on the interstate. The fundamentals of this stock make it look like a good investment.