(San Francisco)

While the press around it has not been nearly as hyped as the iPhone, Apple has finally released its new HomePod. The company’s version of the very popular smart speaker could end up being a major profit source for Apple, if not for the device itself, then because it could facilitate a significant source of service based revenue within Apple’s ecosystem. The device will offer similar functionality to other smart speakers, but apparently will have immensely better sound quality, and will, unsurprisingly, be priced significantly higher than competition, at $349, or more than triple the price of the newest Amazon Echo.

FINSUM: We think this is a very smart area for Apple to get involved in, and frankly, they should have done it sooner. However, being first is often less important than executing perfectly, so if this device is really great, then it won’t matter that it came out late.

(Washington)

One of the big worries that many analysts have about what could end this relentless bull market is the prospect of a global trade war. Nations may turn to constantly trying to undercut one another in a fruitless race to outcompete that could damage all economies involved. Well, the odds of that occurring are looking stronger today as President Trump has just issued a stark warning to China—the US’ largest and most contentious trading partner. The message was the president’s approval of broad tariffs on Chinese solar panels and washing machines. Beijing reacted angrily to the new tariffs, saying it had “strong dissatisfaction”.

FINSUM: We don’t know where to stand on this issue. On the one hand we firmly believe that countries need to and should protect themselves from unfair competition. However, in a larger scope, such efforts can seem more like winning a battle and losing a war.

(New York)

The stock market is very highly priced at the moment and many think we are in the middle of a “melt up”. With that in mind, many are constantly on the lookout for warning signs that the market might be ready to tumble. Well, some are appearing. The big warning sign is that credit spreads are widening and implied volatility is picking up. It is very unusual for this to occur during a rally, as it usually happens during corrections. This warning comes on top of other red flags, such as stretched investor sentiment, and very positive earnings revisions.

FINSUM: The bond market has long been known for leading the stock market, and credit spreads are one of the indicators we tend to take very seriously. Definitely something to pay attention to.

(New York)

With the stock market as nuts as it is, there has been preciously little talk about the real estate market. While housing did somewhat dodge a bullet because interest deductions were not entirely done away with in the recent tax overhaul, some think the market is ripe for a big fall. By some indicators, the market is overheated, with hefty price gains and wide optimism, leading some to hear echoes of 2005. However, generational factors seem likely to bolster the market as Millennials age into home ownership and Baby Boomers sell their homes and move into assisted and planned communities.

FINSUM: The market probably won’t fall legitimately until we have another recession. However, given the fact that Millennials (the largest generation) are just entering the home buying age, it appears there will be robust demand for years.

(New York)

Barron’s has published a very curious article. The piece takes a look at the market and spends a great deal of time showing how the current stock market is both technically and fundamentally sound. The economy is good, market momentum is strong, the rally has good breadth—the whole nine yards. Yet, its overall tone is that investors need to be worried, and prepare themselves for the inevitable downturn. One way to prepare would be to cut out the weakest stocks in your portfolio (likely all with gains, but less than others) as these are likely to fall harder than the best performing stocks. Additionally, consider cashing in some chips, and also, importantly, defining clearly when you will pull out, whether it is when a trend line is broken or at a 10% loss etc.

FINSUM: This market is very rich, but also incredibly hard to time (as always). However, there could still be a lot of gains before a correction arrives.