Displaying items by tag: oil

(Houston)

Oil has been on a great run this year. Underlying crude oil, as well as ETFs like XLE, have been on fire of late, and most will have noticed the higher prices at the pump. A number of forces—like rising demand and tight supply—have been supporting the market, including OPEC lowering output. All of this has led one prominent bank, Piper Sandler, to say that oil is headed back to $100 per barrel, a level it has not seen in years. According to Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler, “I could actually see a number that could be north of 100 in the next, say, six to ... 12 months from here … To us, it looks like you could have more than 40% upside to get back to the old highs in 2018”.

FINSUM: It is worth noting that this is by far the most bullish call on the street. BAML and Goldman Sachs have their calls for this year at $67 and $75, respectively.

(New York)

You have probably seen a few articles floating around, but the last several weeks have really hammered it home: we are at the precipice of a new commodities supercycle. The pandemic brought on a huge fall in commodities prices because of a tumble in demand. But as the economy is heating back up, demand is jumping and supply is not matching it. Raw materials demand has surged across the board. Most have been paying attention to oil prices, but check out others like copper and metals. Goldman sees the dawn of a new decade-long demand surge akin to what happened between 2000 and 2010, when the rise of emerging markets/BRICS drove huge raw materials consumption. This time around Goldman says that the green industrial revolution will create a “capex cycle” on part with what happened to emerging markets in the 2000s.

FINSUM: The bank also argues that social and tax policies that are favoring income redistribution to poorer households is bullish for commodities since those households tend to spend a higher percentage of it.

(New York)

Jeffrey Currie, head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, said there is the beginning of a structural bull market in raw materials…View the full article on our partner Magnifi’s site

(Houston)

The polar vortex sweeping across the south has left many American’s without energy, but investors are not as powerless...see the full story on our partner Magnifi's site

(Houston)

Unprecedented freezing temperatures across the south have wrangled most news headlines this week. This is causing a not so surprising collapse in production from the major U.S. manufacturers in the state most affected, Texas. But the lack of demand from refineries is creating a negative pull on oil prices as they are slower to adjust to changing conditions. Sluggish oil prices will be expected to continue despite a 3.5 million barrel shortfall in production because the refineries aren’t in high demand. On top of this demand shortfall, OPEC has announced plans to ramp up production. These combining factors have produced about a 2% decline in WTI crude futures after declining 1% in trading last Thursday. Finally, the Biden administration has set the course to re-engage with the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, however, Trump-era oil sanctions have not been reversed.

FINSUM: The run-up in oil prices over the last two weeks was driven by inclement weather in the U.S. but look to the finer details of global production in the next couple of weeks to push oil prices back down. Examine related sectors, like the airline industry, to capitalize on these fluctuations.