(New York)

If financial shares are any indicator of the coming stock market environment, asset prices look set for a long rough patch. According to Morgan Stanley, financial shares are suffering as “The carefree days of rising rates and pristine credit quality could be coming to an end”. The bank’s research team continued, “We cannot ignore the growing risk of a bear credit market next year preceding a recession as well as the negative impact of weaker economic growth”.

FINSUM: Banks stocks are trading like the economy is headed towards a bear market, and we can’t help but think it may not be a bad call.

(New York)

The market has been very bearish lately, with last week seeing the worst declines for the S&P 500 since march. The market fell 4.6% last week. This may seem like just another bout of volatility, one in a series we have had this Fall. However, the market’s fear gauge, the VIX, suggests that this selloff is different. The VIX just recently hit levels close to during October’s rout, but what is different this time is that it has sustained its momentum in a way that hasn’t happened since 2016. “This shows that unlike October, investors no longer see the market correction as a temporary dislocation, but rather driven by more persistent macro risks”, says Credit Suisse.

FINSUM: The market is continuing to reflect a comment we made yesterday—that the problems plaguing stocks are not simple to resolve, so is easy to see how prices could continue to fall for some time.

(San Francisco)

There has been a lot of momentum flowing against tech stocks right now, and especially the FAANGs. Facebook has taken a great deal of the pain, with numerous headwinds facing shares. However, the reality is that the company has a very solid underlying business, and the recent volatility means it also has an attractive valuation. According to Deutsche Bank, “We continue to view Facebook as the best risk/reward in large cap internet given the potential for core Facebook engagement to stabilize … and given the extremely attractive current valuation”.

FINSUM: Facebook has been going through a very rough period over the last year, but the negative news cycle is going to abate, and when it does, the stock seems likely to gain.

(New York)

Retail stocks have seen management boost outlooks recently, but that hasn’t helped prices, which have been falling to end the year. However, despite headwinds in the sector, there are a handful of retailers that look likely to see good performance in the near term. Those stocks are Ulta Beauty, Target, and Kohl’s. All three stocks are up for the year but down big in the fourth quarter. One stock analyst summarized his views this way, saying “We like these three stocks given the strong underlying consumer, not easily replicable product assortments, digital investments and innovation”.

FINSUM: These are very consumer-staple oriented, which we think is a good choice for the currently tenuous market environment.

(New York)

Something very odd is happening at both the DOL and SEC. Ever since the fiduciary rule was killed by the courts earlier this year, a renewed sense of purpose seems to have washed over both agencies. While many thought complacency and a light hand would be the guiding approach of both regulators in the Trump era, somehow the opposite has happened. Now, industry lawyers say both regulators are pursuing enforcement at “epic levels of tenacity”. The focus has increasing been on the 401(k) business, but attention and activity has expanded across the board.

FINSUM: When the DOL declined to push its rule further, and the SEC stopped short of using the word “fiduciary”, most somewhat suspected there was going to be a lighter touch approach. Something has really changed.