Displaying items by tag: inflation

(New York)

The market has been blindsided this week, with big losses. However, the 13th was great news for investors, as the market finally showed some resilience, rising considerably despite some more worrying inflation data (PPI). The 1%+ gains on the 13th are a distinct sign: investors are still willing to buy the dip.

FINSUM: Investors still seem to believe in the fundamental direction of earnings and the economy. Our opinion is that this bout of inflation is temporary, but even if it isn’t, it is a good sign that investors can see beyond the inflation numbers right now.

(New York)

Last week's jobs report was disappointing, to say the least, but bond market investors want to know what exactly this means for the recovery: Is this a blip or are we headed for a weakening recovery? Markets are signaling that it could be a slower tightening than they initially might have expected but upcoming data will help investors solidify their response. Job’s Openings and Labor turnover survey (jolts) will tell investors if there is a labor market slump. CPI inflation numbers on food and energy will tell investors how big the labor market spillover troubles are. Additionally, real average hourly earnings are included in this report to be released Wednesday. Finally, retail sales data is released for April on Friday. Growth is expected to slow already but the additional slowdown could be a warning.

FINSUM: These data releases are critical for not only what the bond market sees but what the Fed sees as well. If economic data slows this could change the cadence of the recovery and QE.

(New York)

It was an awful day for markets, with all three big indexes getting hammered, including a Nasdaq loss of 2.7% (the Russell 2000 lost over 3%). The reality is that things are likely to get worse. The inflation reading which spooked the market confirmed the worst fears of investors: that the economy may be heating up so much that the Fed will be forced to taper its support early. Every piece of data is now likely to be understood from this fearful perspective in coming weeks, which means volatility is probably going to stay quite high.

FINSUM: The market is irrationally afraid of inflation right now and has become very disconnected from fundamentals. Earnings are doing quite well and the fundamental direction of most companies is strong, including tech stocks, which are getting battered.

(New York)

May 12th was one of the key market moments of 2021. All eyes were on new inflation data that would make or break the market. The result was a definitive “break”. Inflation came in hot, with the reading measuring 4.2%, well over already high expectations of 3.6%. Markets took a pounding, with the Nasdaq leading the day’s losses in a 2.7% fall. The Dow and the S&P 500 also fell sharply.

FINSUM: We are now in the middle of another market tantrum. It is critical to ask oneself why inflation is so troubling. The reason the market is losing is because of higher rates’ effect on tech stock valuations, but even more importantly, the timeline for the Fed’s taper. But if you can put that aside, what is actually happening is that economy is doing well, and earnings look likely to be great. We think investors should just ride out the storm.

(New York)

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