(Washington)

In a week that saw American COVID cases surge and claim one quarter of all the world’s 10m cases, the US health secretary said that the US may not be able to contain the virus. The US has recently seen a huge jump in cases, with only two states showing a weekly decline in cases. This has led to speculation that the virus may be completely uncontained in the country. Health secretary Alex Azar appeared to acknowledge this, and when discussing containing the virus, he said “The window is closing…”, and that the southern US was seeing the worst of the flare up.

FINSUM: All the hopes that warm weather would hurt the virus have been proven wrong—the hottest places in the country are having the worst outbreaks! How does one price the odds of another economic decline because of this surge?

(New York)

Markets have been rough for the last few weeks. Investors are doubting the pace of the recovery because of a big renewed rise in cases and the possibility of new lockdowns. And according to market analysts, signs are increasingly pointing to another meltdown. If you study various volatility indexes, starting with the VIX, it is becoming clearer that another big move lower is on the horizon. The VIX and other indexes have recently shot back higher after a steady fall after the huge March volatility and their momentum indicates investors may panic sell and create another big correction.

FINSUM: We do not give much respect to technical analysis on its own, but it is useful (in our opinion) as a tool to quantify what one is seeing in the real world. Right now, this makes sense given the rising worries about new cases and lockdowns.

(New York)

The long sought V-shaped recovery has been like a white elephant for investors. It has been hoped for since March when the economy started to shrink, but in the last couple months, most let go of the hope as the depth of the downturn became clear. However, given recent economic data, there are growing odds that the economy might vault out of its recession like a rocket ship. Morgan Stanley says it won’t be long until investors completely buy into that narrative. MS thinks in the next six months investors will go from “doubting to believing” in the v-shaped recovery, and that by the end of the year risk assets will be in a “mid-stage bull market mind-set”.

FINSUM: This is highly speculative, but it is a clear un-muddled position. We suspect the recovery is going to be slower than v-shaped, so our expectations are not nearly so bullish.

(New York)

We have been saying this for months now, but Wall Street is also coming around to the idea: the COVID lockdown was ultimately going to be very bullish for ecommerce and the social media companies with which they are inextricably linked. According to Wedbush, the COVID lockdown has permanently changed shopping habits, and ecommerce’s share of total retail sales will maintain the big jump it saw over the last few months. With that in mind, here are six stocks to consider: Wix.com, GoDaddy, Shopify, eBay, Etsy, and Pinterest.

FINSUM: Just like work habits, people’s buying habits have changed, and they are likely to stay that way. That is a big victory for retailers who were winning the ecommerce race, those who support ecommerce (e.g. Shopify), and social media companies who benefit from increased advertising.

(Washington)

For the last several months, brokerage firms have been preparing for the implementation of the SEC’s Reg BI, which comes into effect next Tuesday (June 30th). The driving force behind the rule has been the SEC’s current chief, Jay Clayton. However, those paying attention will have seen that the whole Reg BI project was throw in doubt this week as President Trump has just nominated Clayton to be the US Attorney for the Southern District of New York. Clayton is apparently interested in the role. This raises serious questions about how seriously the rule will be enforced as the entire rule was basically Clayton’s project. According to Phyllis Borzi, who formerly headed the DOL, “It matters in the sense that this [Reg BI] was his baby, he was determined to push it through…”, its “effectiveness” she said “will rise and fall on how well it’s enforced because the rule itself leaves a lot of ambiguity, so it will be critical how it’s implemented”.

FINSUM: If Clayton leaves, it will create a major void for the rule, including, its enforcement, changes, and focus.