Displaying items by tag: inflation

Investors remain concerned about how inflation could affect their portfolios. Despite the Federal Reserve's efforts, inflation remains elevated, making it a good time to consider adding inflation hedges to your investments. Here are three top inflation hedges to protect your portfolio:

1. TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities): These U.S. government bonds adjust their interest rates with inflation, providing a reliable safeguard for bond investments.

1. Floating-rate bonds: These bonds adjust their payouts with rising interest rates, offering protection against inflation. You can access them through ETFs or mutual funds for added diversification.

1. Real estate: Investing in a house with a fixed-rate mortgage can hedge against inflation. If a house directly isn’t possible SFR or REITs are great options. 

Avoid long-term fixed-rate bonds and cash savings as they lose value in real terms during high inflation.

Finsum: Inflation still remains above the official Fed target and with a potential slew of cuts coming, inflation could spark again. 

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady during its two-day policy meeting this week but signal potential rate cuts as soon as September, acknowledging that inflation is nearing the 2% target. 

Recent data shows easing price pressures, with the PCE price index rising at just 1.5% annualized since March. Fed officials may change their inflation description from "elevated" to "moderately elevated," reflecting confidence that inflation will continue to decline. 

Policymakers believe rate cuts might be necessary before inflation fully returns to the target. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference following the policy statement release detailing the future path of policy. 

Finsum: The market is still pricing in two more cuts by the end of the year, we’ll see if that comes to fruition. 

Declining inflation rates have ignited a bullish frenzy in the equity markets after a turbulent start to 2024. Financial experts highlight the pivotal role played by waning price pressures in propelling the recent stock market surge. 

Fueled by promising inflation trends and the burgeoning artificial intelligence sector, analysts have revised their year-end targets upwards for major stock indices like the S&P 500. Consecutive record highs across key benchmarks reflect investors' optimism, bolstered by lower-than-anticipated inflation readings. 

Economists interpret the recent data as a harbinger of potential interest rate cuts, marking significant progress towards the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target. While the Fed projects a solitary rate reduction in 2024, market sentiment leans towards two cuts. 

Finsum: The key will be how many cuts, if rates fall the cap to the market is very high.

There are increasing concerns that a crisis is brewing in commercial real estate (CRE), as over the next couple of years, $2 trillion in CRE loans will need to be refinanced. Previously, there were hopes that macro conditions would soften, leading to lower rates and a more favorable lending environment. Instead, inflation has proven to be more resilient than expected, and expectations of Fed dovishness have been dialed back.

In addition to high rates, major challenges include decreasing demand for offices and rising vacancies, a stricter lending environment, and balance sheet woes at regional banks, which traditionally account for a large share of CRE lending. However, there is significant variance within the CRE market. Areas like data centers, hotels, and industrial buildings continue to show strength, while retail and multifamily exhibit more mixed performance.

If conditions worsen, there is a risk of spillover effects on the broader economy, including decreased lending activity due to losses at banks, lower tax revenue for local governments due to more vacancies and lower property values, and subsequent declines in hiring. However, the consensus continues to be that there won’t be a full-blown crisis as the sector is sufficiently diversified and continues to have strong credit performance despite adverse conditions.

Finsum: Investors should pay attention to the CRE market given the refinancing cliff and challenges posed by higher rates and a stricter lending environment. 

The first five months of 2024 have featured above-average volatility for fixed income due to inflation continuing to run hot and increased uncertainty about the Fed’s next move. Despite these headwinds, institutional investors have been increasing their allocations to long-duration Treasuries and high-quality, corporate bonds.

One factor is that there is increasing confidence that inflation and the economy will cool in the second half of the year, following a string of soft data. As a result, allocators seem comfortable adding long-duration bonds to lock in yields at these levels. Many seem intent on front-running the rally in fixed income that would be triggered by the prospect of Fed dovishness. According to Gershon Distenfeld of AllianceBernstein, “History shows pretty consistently that yields rally hard starting three to four months before the Fed actually starts cutting.” 

For investors who believe in this thesis, Vanguard has three long-duration bond ETFs. The Vanguard Long-Term Bond ETF is composed of US government, investment-grade corporate, and investment-grade international bonds with maturities greater than 10 years. For those who prefer sticking solely to bonds, the Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF tracks the Bloomberg US Long Treasury Bond Index, which is composed of bonds with maturities greater than 10 years old. 

Many allocators are adding duration exposure via high-quality corporates given higher yields vs. Treasuries. These borrowers would also benefit from rate cuts, which would reduce financing costs and boost margins. The Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond ETF tracks the Bloomberg US 10+ Year Corporate Bond Index, which is comprised of US investment-grade, fixed-rate debt issued by industrial, financial, and utilities with maturities greater than 10 years. 

Finsum: Interest is starting to pick up in long-duration bonds following softer than expected economic and inflation data, which is leading to more optimism that the Fed will cut rates later this year.