(Washington)

Investors get ready, because it looks like the next recession is on the horizon and the Fed is set to start it. And we are not talking about a distant horizon. The Fed has now made its goal a task that has been nearly impossible historically. That is to boost the unemployment rate without causing a recession. The odds of failure are very high and the Fed has never successfully achieved it in its history. The reason the Fed wants to boost unemployment is that labor markets are very tight, which will produce unacceptably high inflation. Accordingly the Fed must intentionally walk up the unemployment rate to keep things in check. The tool it will use is gradual rate rises to slow down growth and boost unemployment.

FINSUM: We think the Fed is probably going to fail in this exercise, either by being too dovish and letting inflation get too high, or by being overly hawkish. Either way we do not see a good outcome. This cycle might have just crested.

(Washington)

One of the big questions in the wealth management industry right now is what is next for the fiduciary rule. The rule has just suffered its first major court defeat and looks like it is down for the count. Yet, advocates are still trying to rally for it and arcane bureaucratic procedures mean outsiders have a hard time understanding how the rule can officially go away. While the DOL does not look likely to appeal the court ruling, another defendant could theoretically step in. Additionally, some argue that since it was the 5th circuit court which delivered the ruling, that its decision only vacates the rule in its region (Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi). Some also think the DOL may drop out of working on the fiduciary rule altogether, leaving the whole thing for the SEC to manage.

FINSUM: So despite the positive ruling for those opposed to the rule, the path forward is still very uncertain. However, the likelihood of the rule ever coming into full force seems very low and the DOL says it will no longer enforce it.

(Beijing)

President Trump is set to unveil a package of trade tariffs on $60 bn worth of Chinese goods. Unsurprisingly, the Chinese are preparing their retaliation, focused on US agricultural exports. However, the very interesting part is the retaliatory package will only be on $3 bn of US imports to China, much smaller than the US package. The new Chinese tariffs will be on items ranging from fruit to pork to recycled metals. One US adviser commented “All the products on the list are small potatoes, and the real important ones are U.S. farm products like soybeans and sorghum”.

FINSUM: So why is the Chinese measure so much smaller? In our view it means that they are either afraid to seriously anger the US, or that they need our imports much more than we realize. Interesting development.

(Miami)

The Wall Street Journal has just put out the first thoroughly insightful article about the new homes crisis that we have yet seen. The US is currently plagued by one of the most severe declines in new home construction in the last century and the piece interviews many parties, including home builders, to understand why. The heart of the issue is that the costs to build a new home have roughly doubled since just before the Crisis, as labor, land, and materials have surged in price. Accordingly, many builders now only build luxury homes, where the margins are fatter for them. The low end of the market has been left with very few homes for a large number of buyers, which has sent prices through the roof.

FINSUM: So we have surging pricing at the same time as rising interest rates. Prices look set for a big fall in the near to medium term.

(New York)

So the stock market is just about back where it was a month and a half ago at the bottom of its correction. This time the flare up has been driven by worries over a looming trade war being set off by the US and China. However, this recent rise in volatility has given insight into which stocks appear to be winners if a trade war does ensue. The answer is stocks that act like bonds, or yield stocks (alongside Treasuries and gold, the old safe haven standbys). Utilities and REITs have performed well, as have tobacco stocks, given that all three have strong yields to offer.

FINSUM: It is funny that just a few weeks ago everyone was worried about a bond bear market, and now everyone is pouring into fixed income and yield stocks.

(New York)

Barron’s has just interviewed a prominent economist—Stephanie Pomboy—and she has some very interesting opinions about the economy. Rather than seeing the economy’s recent growth as a good performance, she analyzes the data to show that this pickup in growth is actually the last gasp of American consumers before a big recession. Digging into corporate spending data, she shows how the US consumer has been stretched by everyday expenses even as discretionary spending is weak. Consumers have had to pay for extra everyday costs, such as on food and energy, from savings or credit. Now that the savings rate is starting to rise, Pomboy thinks we are headed for a recession.

FINSUM: This is an entirely different way to read the tape, but may not be that far off the truth.

(Washington)

There are a lot of articles saying that the DOL’s fiduciary rule is on its last legs (and we aren’t sad about it). However, the reality is that despite the ruling, the DOL’s infamous rule lives on. Even if it does not stay in its current form (which seems likely), the fiduciary focus the rule brought to the industry is going nowhere, and the coming SEC rule will likely take what the DOL did to even greater lengths (but hopefully more convincingly). As an example of how the spirit of the rules lives on, here is a comment from the CEO of the Investment Adviser’s Association, who says “Now, are you really going to send a letter to your clients saying, never mind I'm not going to act in your best interest? No. No, it's too late. So some of this is not going to change in real life”.

FINSUM: Fiduciary duty is here to stay but the “fiduciary rule” is not. We think that could be a win for all parties.

(Washington)

Markets have been on edge for weeks, and it appears with good reason. President Trump is reportedly putting the finishing touches on a major trade tariff package that is directed at China (to the tune of $50 bn). The focus of the tariffs are on metals. In response, China is planning its own set of tariffs on US agricultural exports, especially from Farm Belt states.

FINSUM: So the US is negotiating exemptions with top allies, but is starting a trade war with China a good idea? The politically difficult aspect for Trump is that China’s retaliation against US agricultural exports will hurt the states that helped elect the president.

(Seattle)

There have been numerous articles covering it over the last few months, and it has caused some excitement and alarm in the market. The story? Amazon is going into healthcare. The hype started to build when Amazon received licenses to be a pharmaceuticals distributor. Now, Barron’s has published a piece explaining why Amazon sees an opportunity. The Internet of Things is supposed to transform the pharmaceutical and healthcare business and Amazon wants to be a part of that, especially now that it has the explicit goal of trying to lower healthcare costs in the US.

FINSUM: We think the high-minded goal of lowering healthcare costs needs to be thought of separately than Amazon’s interest in drug distribution. The fact is, the company sees a solid-margin business it can eat up with its logistics prowess.

(Atlanta)

There is a very particular kind of housing problem currently affecting the US—a serious shortage of homes at the lower end of the cost spectrum. Not only is inventory thin, but the housing stock available for first time buyers is in poor condition and prices are rising quickly (10% in the last year). The average starter home on the market is 9 years older than it was in 2012 and is 2% smaller. That price growth is outpacing other categories.

FINSUM: So the big worry we have is that with all the price appreciation happening, prices are more primed to fall considerably as rates hit a tipping point where they start to curtail mortgage borrowing.