(Miami)

The Wall Street Journal has just put out the first thoroughly insightful article about the new homes crisis that we have yet seen. The US is currently plagued by one of the most severe declines in new home construction in the last century and the piece interviews many parties, including home builders, to understand why. The heart of the issue is that the costs to build a new home have roughly doubled since just before the Crisis, as labor, land, and materials have surged in price. Accordingly, many builders now only build luxury homes, where the margins are fatter for them. The low end of the market has been left with very few homes for a large number of buyers, which has sent prices through the roof.

FINSUM: So we have surging pricing at the same time as rising interest rates. Prices look set for a big fall in the near to medium term.