FINSUM
Stronger-than-expected U.S. job growth could challenge recent market strategies that anticipated falling interest rates. Many investors had bet on steep Fed rate cuts, pushing up Treasury prices and weakening the dollar, but Friday's labor report, which exceeded expectations, may lead to fewer cuts.
The dollar has already rebounded sharply, while Treasury yields have risen, reversing recent declines. Some investors may now need to reconsider positions in sectors like utilities, which thrived on expectations of lower yields.
In the broader stock market, investors could chase further gains, though rising bond yields may temper the appeal of equities. Overall, the economic data points to more uncertainty in rate predictions and market behavior.
Finsum: We don’t expect the Fed to deviate from the planned path too much, but monitoring labor markets will be key to getting a fully informed decision about future rate cuts.
The drop in interest rates last month contributed to an over 3% rise in the FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs Index, continuing a strong upward trend since October 2023, pushing growth to nearly 40%. In the third quarter, the index saw a notable 16.8% return, outperforming broader stock indices.
Gains were broad, led by data centers, specialty, and office REITs, though residential REITs slightly declined. The shift in rates is also expected to bridge the gap between public and private real estate markets, potentially revitalizing commercial real estate investment.
Active REIT managers have adjusted sector allocations, with healthcare, data centers, and telecommunications seeing increased interest. With REITs benefiting from strong balance sheets and attractive debt rates, the outlook for continued growth and activity remains positive for the coming quarters.
Finsum: We think gains are more likely to be robust in residential REITs because they are less dependent on work policies and labor market conditions.
Large ski resorts offer a unique thrill, providing ample terrain for exploration that can keep even the most avid skier busy for days.
- Powder Mountain in Utah tops the list of North America's largest ski resorts, with over 8,000 skiable acres, though part of it is accessed by snow cats rather than chairlifts.
- Whistler Blackcomb in British Columbia follows closely with over 8,100 acres spread across two mountains, connected by the record-breaking Peak 2 Peak gondola.
- Park City Mountain Resort, Utah, offers the most lift-served terrain in the U.S., featuring 7,300 acres of slopes, and is easily accessible from Salt Lake City.
These vast resorts provide a mix of terrain and amenities, catering to both casual visitors and serious skiers alike. Whether for the sheer size or the diverse experiences, these resorts deliver unforgettable winter adventures.
Finsum: In the last few years we have seen the season start late but continue deep into the year, this could be a new trend in mountain sports!
A JPMorgan executive has downplayed the influence of the political pushback against environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues in the U.S., stating that it has minimal impact on the country's green economy.
Chuka Umunna, JPMorgan’s head of sustainable solutions, explained that although discussions around sustainability have quieted, U.S. investors are still allocating capital in ways similar to their European counterparts. He stressed that despite the politicization of ESG, the underlying investment behavior remains largely the same, though the terminology may differ.
Umunna pointed out that while there has been an increase in anti-ESG resolutions, the vast majority failed to pass, with less than 2% succeeding. He added that the primary obstacles for U.S. businesses are more related to inflation, supply chain disruptions, and high interest rates than ESG challenges.
Finsum: While there is little doubt that ESG has slowed down, the long-term viability of these strategies is very clear
While nontraded real estate investment trusts (REITs) have faced another challenging year, financial advisors are seeing a rise in sales of alternative investments overall. By August, financial advisors sold $76.6 billion of illiquid alternatives, including nontraded REITs, business development companies (BDCs), interval funds, and private placements.
This amount matches 2023's total, with projections indicating the industry will surpass $115 billion by the end of 2024. Sales of nontraded REITs have notably decreased to $4.2 billion in the first eight months, compared to their peak of over $33 billion in 2022.
However, BDCs have overtaken REITs as the most popular alternative investment sold, with $23.7 billion in sales through August. Blackstone Inc. leads in nontraded REIT and BDC sales this year.
Finsum: There is still an elevated risk premium built into most non-treasury rates right currently but REITs could see a bounce back with that falling soon.
Blackstone Inc. predicts the private credit market could expand to $30 trillion, driven by infrastructure financing and pensions. Currently, private debt stands at $1.7 trillion, primarily funding private equity, but Rob Horn, global head of infrastructure and asset-based credit at Blackstone, views this as just a fraction of the opportunity.
Private lenders are expected to take market share from banks, which now dominate the asset-based credit sector, with Blackstone focusing on areas like energy transition, digital infrastructure, and real estate.
Pension and sovereign wealth funds are also taking notice, potentially increasing their private debt allocations. Blackstone expects significant future growth in sectors like data centers, where investments could top $1 trillion over five years.
Finsum: While private equity has struggled to secure its footing in the same way private debt has, this expansion looks very stable.
On September 18, the Federal Reserve kicked off a new easing cycle by cutting interest rates by 50 basis points, its largest reduction in 16 years. However, instead of a smooth decline in bond yields, the 10-year Treasury yield actually rose afterward, highlighting the unpredictability of markets.
The Fed has made it clear that its strategy will be a gradual one, adjusting based on economic data, with a neutral policy stance likely to be reached by 2026. Other major central banks, such as the ECB and BOE, are also approaching rate cuts cautiously to curb inflationary pressures.
China, facing economic slowdowns, has continued cutting rates to spur growth in other sectors, despite ongoing issues in the property market.
Finsum: As global central banks navigate rate cuts, market volatility is expected, especially with geopolitical risks and upcoming elections contributing to uncertainty.
Private equity giants are increasingly turning to hands-on management of the companies they own as financial strategies alone are no longer sufficient. With rising interest rates and a slowdown in the deals market, firms like Goldman Sachs and Blackstone are bringing in seasoned industry veterans to boost operational performance.
This shift focuses on enhancing profitability through measures like improving margins and increasing cash flow, rather than relying on the traditional method of multiple expansion.
Private equity firms are also extending the holding periods of their investments, driven by the need to deliver returns to investors amidst a tougher economic climate. Companies are placing a stronger emphasis on building long-term strategic growth plans.
Finsum: As interest rates and inflation rise, private equity is evolving to emphasize deeper involvement in company operations rather than relying solely on financial solutions.
Podcasts have exploded in popularity in the last decade and with it comes a wide variety of options to increase your awareness. Whether you're just beginning your investment journey or preparing for retirement, these podcasts offer guidance for all stages of life.
- Planet Money from NPR simplifies complex financial topics through relatable stories.
- Jessica Moorehouse’s More Money Podcast focuses on personal finance tips and interviews, helping listeners take control of their money.
- The Bid by BlackRock provides insights from strategists on market events, geopolitics, and sustainable investing.
Each podcast brings unique perspectives on how to start investing, understand the economy, and reach financial goals.
Finsum: Podcast recommendations can also be used to grow connections with clientele by helping them understand their investment opportunities.
The Fidelity Trend Fund (FTRNX) is a top-rated global equity mutual fund, managed by Shilpa Mehra, with $3.25 billion in assets. Over the past five years, it has delivered strong returns, with an annualized rate of 18.98%, placing it in the top third of its category.
Although slightly more volatile than its peers, with a 5-year beta of 1.13, it has consistently outperformed benchmarks, producing a positive alpha of 2.74. The fund's expense ratio of 0.55% is notably lower than the category average, making it cost-effective for investors.
With 80.17% of its portfolio in stocks, primarily in the technology and retail sectors, the fund actively manages its assets with a 50% turnover rate. Overall, FTRNX offers strong performance, reasonable risk, and lower fees, making it an appealing choice for global equity investors.
Finsum: With the upcoming election, investors might consider the viability of international equity exposure in Trend funds such as these.