(New York)

The trade war is very scary for everybody. From politicians to executives to investors (in both nations), everyone is afraid of the implications of the trade war. However, there are some good reasons not to be. Firstly, while there are fears of a market tailspin, the reality is that the dovish Fed should provide a safety net. Secondly, many worry the trade war could bring the economy to a standstill, but remember that only 2.4% of US economic output is at risk of Chinese tariffs. Finally, many fear China could dump its $1.1 tn of Treasuries. The truth is that doing so is very unlikely, and even if they do, it is a small portion of the $22 tn market.

FINSUM: The general theme to take away here is that China is not as big a part of the US economy and markets as many seem to assume it is. That said, the secondary effects of a trade war, such as the psychological impact on business and the effect on the rest of the world, could be considerable.

(New York)

Bonds and stocks are at odds right now. Yields have dropped considerably as the bond market is predicting pain to come. Stocks have sold off, but are still around all-time highs. If you look at how money markets are currently priced they imply a whopping 20% decline in stocks. There is not a much macro data to support the money markets’ pricing, but it is certainly a sign to pay attention to. “The rates market has probably overreacted relative to other asset classes in the last two weeks. However, the macro backdrop is fundamentally more uncertain today”, says Deutsche Bank, continuing “The renewed trade tensions create downside risks which were deemed to be negligible 2 months ago”.

FINSUM: Stocks are going to react to economic data and the trade war, so the current forecasts for stock prices are only as good as one’s ability to prognosticate those factors.

(New York)

Wirehouse business may have gotten a boost from the demise of the fiduciary rule, but its decline has been uninterrupted for years. New data from 2018 is in and shows that wirehouses shed 5.7% of their client assets during the year. Advisor headcount also dropped by 403 advisors, brining the total to 54,030. According to the study, put out by Aite Group, “Wirehouses have steadily ceded market share from 2008 to 2018 … The segment has lost a total of 10 percentage points over that time period. As wirehouses continue to rationalize the size of clients they serve in advisory relationships, they also continue to see an outflow of advisors into other industry channels”.

FINSUM: RIAs and IBDs have been taking market share from wirehouses for years and the reasons why are obvious—better selling points for clients and better compensation. We think it is also a product of the demographics of the industry—as advisors get more senior and established the economics of going independent become more alluring.

(New York)

In a great example of how Trump’s new tariffs on China will reverberate around the US economy, Nike and Adidas are panicking over the new Trump moves. The pair just led a consortium of 173 companies who penned an open letter to the President imploring him to stop the tariff move immediately. Nike and Adidas say the tariffs will be “catastrophic”. Clothing and footwear already endure some of the highest tariffs, so hiking them further will increase costs and create huge logistical complications. The letter summarized their view this way, saying they will be ”catastrophic for our customers, our companies, and the American economy as a whole”.

FINSUM: If you are a company that makes or imports a lot of your merchandise from China, this is going to be a very rough period. We expect the market will start to take this into account as the full impact of the trade war is digested.

(San Francisco)

One of the trade war’s big victims could be Apple. While much of the trade war panic has been focused on other products, Apple could be the biggest victim to suffer. The the reason why may have more to do with sentiment than with tariffs. While there is much talk of Chinese “national champions”, Apple is undoubtedly an American national champion in China, and with sentiment souring against the US in the face of the trade war, it is likely that Chinese consumers will move towards purchasing domestic smart phones. Apple will be forced to raise prices because of tariffs, which would accelerate the trade. China accounts for about 18% of Apple’s revenue and a higher percentage of its profits.

FINSUM: There could be a big hit to Apple’s top and bottom lines here. China could also take measures to specifically wound Apple the way Washington has done to Huawei. Anything seems to be fair game right now.

(New York)

There has been growing consternation about the threat of a major meltdown in corporate debt. The Fed, in particular, has been very troubled by the amount of corporate debt in the economy, which has led to speculation by Wall Street that there could be a blow up. Goldman Sachs has been more sanguine, saying debt levels look healthy. Now the Fed appears to be taking a more mild view as well. In a speech this week, Chairman Powell said that the comparison to pre-Crisis debt levels are not convincing. “Most importantly, the financial system today appears strong enough to handle potential business-sector losses, which was manifestly not the case a decade ago with subprime mortgages.

FINSUM: Debt levels seems high, but profits are margins are good to. The question is what happens when the economy turns south. We are especially concerned about the BBB market.

(Washington)

The panic over Trump’s blacklisting of Huawei was reaching a fever pitch. The fall out had gotten so bad that it looks like the President decided to take a step back. Trump has now granted a three-month reprieve on the blacklist to give companies time to adjust. The stay is not a cancellation of the decision, just a window for adjustment. Huawei says it “doesn’t mean much”.

FINSUM: This is smarter than a sudden blanket ban as it will give a little adjustment period which may make it a bit easier for companies and markets to digest.

(New York)

There was a beautiful four-month window between December 2018 and May 2019 when everything looked positive. The trade spat with China looked increasingly mild and economic data was strong. It was a mirage. Even the hefty 3.2% GDP growth figure was mostly because of an incredible buildup in inventories, which when stripped away leave growth at 1.5%. Further, revised data shows that industrial production has dropped 1.2% since December. Even though this counts for a small portion of the economy, it is highly indicative of the business cycle. Some areas like auto production and machinery are down much more at 5%.

FINSUM: The glorious rally of the first third of the year seems to have stalled and the bad news is piling up, with the trade war exacerbating everything.

(New York)

Whenever serious volatility strikes, investors get very nervous and don’t know how to react. One of the big questions is should I stay in the market? The other is which assets should I buy? Surprisingly, there is a fairly simple solution to handle volatility: every time the market moves wildly, hedge your portfolio with cash and/or options. When the markets calm down, unwind the hedge. Returns on stocks have actually been historically strongest during periods of low volatility (not the opposite).

FINSUM: The most interesting aspect here is that studies show that market returns have been highest in low volatility periods. Many people think that you have to stay in the market during volatile periods to make great returns, but that is simply not the case.

(San Francisco)

Make no mistake, the US’ new blacklisting of Huawei is going to have a serious effect on American tech companies. Huawei is deeply integrated with many US suppliers of technology components, so the import and export restrictions will be significant. Here is a lit of US companies with major relationships with Huawei: Qualcomm, Broadcom, Xilinx, Synopsys, Marvell Technology, Seagate Technology, Western Digital, Texas Instruments, and Micron technology.

FINSUM: The impact on the top and bottom lines of all these companies will take some time to figure out, but for now we thought it would be useful to know which ones are at risk.