(Atlanta)

Expectations of higher compensation and more “freedom” usually top the list of articles that discuss why advisors are breaking away from large brokers. However, there is more to it than that. An interesting piece in Financial Planning tells the story of a team breaking away from Merrill Lynch. In reality it is not just comp that is an issue, and it s rarely the sole reason for breaking away. Often times it has to do with institutional limitations, like corporate bureaucracy, a bad branch manager, or small clients getting funneled to call centers. Other times it is because advisors are offering tons of service, like tax planning, cash flow management, loan refinancing etc that they just don’t get paid for.

FINSUM: This is a good piece that goes deeper than usual in exploring the real reasons advisors leave and whether doing so is a good idea.

(Chicago)

Small cap stocks are starting to have their day in the sun. The Russell 200 has started to catch up to large cap indexes this autumn, and some stocks look ready to surge. The index is now up 21.2% for the year, just a few points behind the S&P 500’s 25.5%. According to Merrill Lynch, economic recoveries “tend to be the best phase for small-caps …That’s one key reason we think we could be poised for a shift from large to small”. According to a Jefferies analyst, “I think small is primed to outperform as the economy and earnings improve in 2020 … That’s going to be the whole ballgame”.

FINSUM: It is hard to imagine the US is going to enter an “economic recovery phase” at the end of a ten-year bull run, but the market’s perception of the current economy is exactly that, so these forecasts might be spot on.

(New York)

If one thing is for sure about markets at the moment, it is that investors are less worried about the economy and less stressed about the chances of a bear market. That is exactly why the market is at risk. The market’s fear index, the VIX, jumped a whopping 16% yesterday, signaling some underlying anxiety building after a calm and positive stretch. One of the factors that is looming over markets is whether the tariff deadlines on China get delayed or not, which will be a sign of progress or failure on the trade deal. Further, fears over the election, and higher rates, are likely to dampen corporate spending and slow the economy.

FINSUM: Our worry is that the anxiety level at the moment does not seem to be matching the real risk, which ironically is when the chance of a market downturn is at its highest.

(New York)

One of the first big changes under new Goldman CEO David Solomon is becoming clear. That first major move is in wealth management, where Goldman is attempting to push much more broadly into the market. The bank plans to launch a robo advisor to get people with as little as $5,000 to invest to join its offering. Goldman has traditionally gone after very wealthy clients ($10m+), so this is a major change of pace for the the bank and is more in line with its recent increased focus on mass market savings products. A senior figure at Goldman explained “It’s a pipeline for future clients” to allow them to “experience the Goldman Sachs’ way”.

FINSUM: Goldman seems to believe it has stretched the high end of its market (big corps and UHNWIs) as far as it could go, and this is just the next logical area for growth. The challenge here is that we don’t think the Goldman name has the same cache with the mass market that it does with the HNW market.

(New York)

One of the big worries on small RIAs’ minds right now is whether Schwab is going to leave them out on an island to wither. Small RIAs have always been the bread and butter market for TD Ameritrade, but with its recent acquisition by Schwab, that could all change—such is the fear of the small independent shop. However, Schwab has taken a couple of moves that seem to indicate they are not going to forget about the group. In particular, they have hired Tom Bradley from TDA, who for years ran TDA’s RIA custody business, to lead the new combined effort.

FINSUM: There is still a good degree of doubt over whether Schwab will mainly focus on its institutional clients and large RIAs, but this is a sign that Schwab is not likely to forget about its small RIAs.

(Washington)

While it never really seemed to be in doubt, it is all but certain now that Democrats are going to bring articles of impeachment against President Trump. The party is likely to bring two separate articles against Trump by today, with an additional one possible. One will be focused on abuse of power, and the other one or two on obstructing Congress and obstruction of justice. In response to Republican criticism that the Democrats are rushing the impeachment process, Jerrold Nadler said “I want to be absolutely clear: the integrity of our next election is at stake. Nothing could be more urgent”.

FINSUM: No surprises here, but this will likely all be for nothing because of the Senate.

(Washington)

One of the leading trade bodies of the brokerage industry has just put out an alarming, and frankly logical, warning. SIFMA says that a growing body of regulation is threatening to completely end the brokerage industry as we know it. In particular, SIFMA says the rise of state-based fiduciary rules is likely to lead to the “lowest common denominator” regulatory solution in many states. Instead of trying to navigate a complex network of rules, the solution is simply to say “we do not have brokerage in our state”. Many states may only have advisory accounts, which according to SIFMA will mean "Clients will have one choice they can buy, which in many cases will be buying more services than they wanted and having to pay more than they wanted to”.

FINSUM: So anyone in the industry will realize that trade bodies put out warnings all the time. What makes this different is that it seems highly realistic, which makes it quite troubling. The reality is that for many clients brokerage is the right model, so it needs to be defended.

(Boston)

Earlier this year (before the Schwab deal), TD Ameritrade put out an interesting report about breaking away. The report was centered on advisors’ motivations for breaking away as well as their likelihood of doing so. One of the most interesting findings is that as of July, 46% of advisors who were thinking of breaking away said that they had increased urgency since the start of the year. 44% said they would move within the next year. The main reasons were freedom, compensation, and client service, all of which they felt were better at an independent. Another key finding is that only about 36% of advisors wanted to breakaway on their own; most wanted to merge with another partner or join an established firm.

FINSUM: The breakaway movement is only gaining momentum. Wirehouses are shedding advisors and RIAs and IBDs are picking them up left and right.

(New York)

Here is an eye-opening stat for anyone working in wealth management: 37% of all advisors expect to retire in the next decade. That will put about 39% of all AUM in the industry in motion. The biggest surge in retirement will be on the B-D side of the fence. The major question is who will replace all these advisors? “While some progress is being made, the industry is struggling to recruit and retain advisor talent that is adequately prepared to inherit the businesses … In an effort to overcome this challenge, firms are boosting recruiting efforts to bring new advisors into the industry and revamping training efforts to improve success rates”, says Cerulli Associates.

FINSUM: Succession panning has not been very good in general, so there are big questions about how this will play out. This is either one of the best opportunities in the history of the business, or the whole market might shrink naturally if older advisors retire and Millennials don’t hire new ones.

(New York)

One of the ways that wirehouses have been trying to make their brokers (and their brokers’ clients) more sticky is by pushing loans. Brokers are encouraged to get clients to borrow money. These loans have the effect of binding clients to firms for long periods, and correspondingly, it makes it harder for brokers to breakaway because clients are more likely to stay put. However, some RIAs are combatting the trend by offering to replace client loans during the transition period when brokers are joining their firms. Perhaps even more interestingly, custodians are getting into the game too, with Schwab announcing recently that they would be increasing lending products available to advisors to help them transition clients away from wirehouses. The loans provided often have lower interest rates than what the wires offer, so the success rate in migrating clients has been quite high.

FINSUM: The loan game has been the domain of the wirehouses for years, but with the big custodians getting involved, this is another important structure that will make breaking away easier.