(San Francisco)

Barron’s has featured a very eye-opening call. The argument comes from the CIO of Ariel Investments. She argues that it is time to short Apple. Referring to the company as the “blue chip of yesterday”, she contends that Apple is not a tech company, but a consumer electronics one, and that whether its new products are a hit has a huge impact on revenue. It is trying to pivot to services, but it has no first mover’s or any other natural advantage in doing so and is competing with big names like Netflix and Disney. It is even behind competitors in its core iPhone business and trying to catch up. She argues that a blue chip of yesterday is the worst kind of stock because all the good news is priced in, but none of the bad news is.

FINSUM: This is quite a stark portrayal of Apple. While we do not completely agree, there is some significant truth to this argument and it warrants concern.

(New York)

The market is at all time highs, multiples are huge, and earnings are trending the wrong way. If you are looking to buy into some downside protection, take a look at these 4 tech names. These stocks have big dividends which should offer some significant downside protection as tech shares with lower multiples and good dividend yields provide insulation. Here are the names: IBM (4.7% yield), Broadcom (4.2%), Hewlett Packard (3.2%), and Cisco Systems (2.9%).

FINSUM: IBM trailed the tech market last year but still had a respectable 16% gain. Seems like a good choice given the big dividend yield.

(Beijing)

The new SARS/Coronavirus that has broken out in China has been serious enough that it has actually spooked markets. 17 people have already died and 600 more have the pathogen, which is as yet poorly understood. Now the city where it was first found, Wuhan, has been quarantined. However, the quarantine has been greatly undermined by the fact that it was instituted after the country’s biggest annual migration—the Lunar New Year, when Chinese go home to visit family. One the big worries is that the virus seems to have “superspreading” characteristics, or the kind of virus that spreads much more rapidly from person to person than normal.

FINSUM: This is a pretty scary bug, and the US already had its first confirmed case (a man in Seattle that had come directly from Wuhan).

(Atlanta)

US Real estate has been a worry spot for the last few years. For the last three years or so everyone thought real estate might be the initial signal that the economy was headed lower. However, that never materialized and real estate has been looking modestly better for the last several months. The end of 2019 continued that streak as existing home sales rose 3.6% in December as low unemployment helped support the housing market.

FINSUM: We think the housing market is just solid and steady right now. No huge speculative gains, no gigantic increases in debt etc. It is a nice contrast to publicly-traded securities!

(New York)

Investors seem to have every reason to worry about bonds. Prices are high, yields are low, and low quality companies are accessing easy financing even in the face of an uncertain economic future. With all that said, there might not be any reason to worry at all. Central banks are still gaming the system. From the Fed being really conservative with rates, to the ECB and BOJ doing massive QE, the whole central bank mechanism is conspiring to prop up bond prices in a major way.

FINSUM: As long as that pre-condition of huge central bank support is in place, it is hard to see bonds taking much of a hit.

(Washington)

If you are hoping a middle of the road Democrat wins the party’s bid, then yesterday’s poll is an alarming one. In a new CNN poll, Bernie Sanders completed a 9-point swing to overtake Joe Biden by 3% in polls of Democratic voters. He rose a full 7 points to 27% support versus Biden’s fall of 2% to 24% overall. The first votes for the candidacy start on February 3rd in Iowa and February 11th in New Hampshire.

FINSUM: Purely looking at this from a political perspective, we think it is hard to say which candidate has the best odds of beating Trump. On the one hand, Biden can certainly capture more of the centrist voters, but on the other, Bernie is a much more realistic embodiment of the current Democrat party and could galvanize its identity to voters.

(New York)

The stock market is a tough game right now. Valuations are sky high and earnings are trending the wrong way, which makes picking any stock difficult. Even buying popular high-priced stocks isn’t a good plan when earnings are falling, which makes it seem as though there are few good options. With that in mind, consider buying cash cows like Facebook, Google, and Ford. With such good earnings prowess and free cash flow, these kinds of companies have the money to keep buying back shares, which should drive their valuations over time.

FINSUM: Cash cows can feed their own market pricing even in really rich markets, so this seems like a smart call.

(Washington)

Bank of America Merrill Lynch has just published a new survey of institutional money managers and found an interesting sentiment among those managing a hulking mass of American money. That finding is that money managers are much more worried about the election than they are about the trade war. Institutional investors think election worries will have a much greater effect on markets than the trade war will. The chief US economist at Goldman Sachs summarizes the situation this way, saying “While there are no obvious signs of election-related effects on economic activity so far in this election cycle, there is some concern that . . . uncertainty could have a more noticeable effect on sentiment and activity as the election approaches”.

FINSUM: We absolutely agree. The trade war seems to be cooling as both sides appear as though they want to hash out the issues. The election is an event with potentially hugely variant outcomes and it is highly difficult to predict. This all means it is hard to price, and that uncertainty can weigh on companies and markets.

(Washington)

Trump’s legal team put out a bold proclamation today. In a 171-page briefing that preceded the launch of his impeachment trial in the Senate, Trump’s lawyers argue that he cannot be removed from office for abusing power. They contend that since he did not break any laws, he cannot be removed from office. The team summarized their view, “House Democrats’ novel theory of ‘abuse of power’ improperly supplants the standard of ‘high crimes and misdemeanours’ with a made-up theory that would permanently weaken the presidency by effectively permitting impeachments based merely on policy disagreements”.

FINSUM: This is a very interesting argument as the legal team seems to have changed tactics. Rather than arguing the underlying facts in the case, they are now trying to say that even if all the facts are true, Trump still cannot be removed from office.

(New York)

The golden age of streaming is over, that is for sure. For the last several years, the combination of Netflix and Amazon Prime have given consumers a wide array of choices at low prices. However, the streaming space is now fragmenting dramatically as Disney and others take their programming off Netflix and others, making consumers pay for more subscriptions to get the same content. NBC, for instance, just launched its own service, Peacock, for its content. However, it did something quite differently—a lot of the content is free for consumers. You only pay for a premium section of the content, but a bulk of its is free when you sign up. If you are already a Comcast subscriber, the whole thing is free, though it does have limited ads.

FINSUM: This is the first time that a major streaming service decided to be free (outside of Prime Video being free for Prime subscribers). This may change the whole pricing paradigm for the industry.