(Washington)

Bernie is a long, long way from the White House. He has not even won his party’s bid. Yet, his odds of winning the Democratic ticket, and thus his effect on markets are growing. The reality is that even if you think Trump is likely to win the election, Bernie is probably going to have a big effect on markets this year because of how tight polls are likely to be. With that in mind, here is some advice to protect your portfolio. Analysts are still working through how Bernie might impact specific sectors, but there is one area where all agree he will be devastating—defense. Bernie favors heavy cuts to the defense budget—a position unique to him among the Democratic field of candidates. Therefore, selling defense companies or buying puts on the defense sector seems smart. Such puts are still quite cheap, so not a bad time to prepare.

FINSUM: If Sanders wins the bid he is going to have a stronger impact on markets every week (provided the polls stay close). Best to start thinking about this now as it may be a theme for the rest of the year.

(New York)

A new report shows that fixed index annuities sales have been surging. FIAs saw sales jump 57% in 2019, and there appear to be two reasons why. Firstly, the defeat of the DOL’s fiduciary rule completely reopened the market to a product that had been in serious trouble in the period leading up to the rule. Additionally, due to de-risking, variable annuities have become less attractive, and more money has been moving into fixed index annuities, which also offer higher rates than fixed annuities. Generally speaking, “Broker-dealers have embraced the solution as products become more transparent and consumer-friendly”, says Cerulli Associates.

FINSUM: The whole sales process for FIAs has really cleaned up its act and the marketing materials and structures are more accessible now. We expect this market to keep rising.

(New York)

Many have been wondering when junk bonds were going to start feeling pain. Despite the previous risk of recession, junk bonds did quite well over the last several months. However, since the big flare up over coronavirus, they have started to be seriously wounded. On Friday, junk bond spreads to Treasuries were at 366 bp—very low. As of yesterday, they were at 418 basis, a 50bp+ rise in two trading days, showing how much investors fear the economic impact of coronavirus.

FINSUM: We think these spreads are going to keep moving higher, even if stocks level out. Bond investors are a suspicious bunch and an economic slowdown would hit high yield companies harder than average.

(New York)

Global and US stocks are teetering on the brink of a major correction right now. US indexes fell around 3.5% and fears over the spread of coronavirus and its impact on the economy continue to rattle the psyche of markets. One analyst summarized the deepening fears of the virus’ potential impact this way, saying “When countries are closing borders, the threat of an outbreak is becoming more pronounced in Europe and the Middle East and supply chains are just going to be more disrupted, how do we model risk when we can’t even model economics with any confidence?”.

FINSUM: There was an early morning bounce in Asian markets that fizzled. The news today is not any better than yesterday. It is easy to imagine the bottom temporary falling out of markets.

(New York)

Very high stock market prices and the continual threat of major downturn has sent fixed index annuity sales surging lately. Fixed Index Annuity sales accounted for 57% of all annuities sales in 2019 and amounted to $74 bn. “The high number of fixed-index annuity sales are a response to investors observing that the market continues to go up and this is a strategy to put a safety net under their portfolio if the market fails”, says one advisor in Pittsburgh. Fixed Index Annuities guarantee your principal while still offering limited upside, so they present a compelling case for people worried about a big downturn who need the peace of mind of principal protection and a steady income stream.

FINSUM: This is a perfect market for FIAs because of sky high prices and falling bond yields (which sap income). Just make sure you completely understand the contracts.

(Boston)

Advisors will have likely noticed that Massachusetts has just introduced a new fiduciary rule. The rule, announced on Friday, makes Massachusetts the first state to adopt a best interest standard since courts struck down the DOL’s fiduciary rule. The rule is under the usual attacks from industry trade groups, but more surprisingly, it is also being attacked by fiduciary rule advocates. Such advocates had initially praised the rule’s first draft, but now say the state made too many changes before implementation. According to the Consumer Federation of America “What’s left is a modest improvement on Regulation Best Interest but not the kind of tough standard needed to protect investors from conflicted advice.”

FINSUM: The changes to the rule were significant, such as not applying to insurance product sales and not applying to brokers unless “account monitoring” was specifically specified in the customer contract. The rule takes effect March 6th.

(San Francisco)

Apple’s stock has suffered significantly last week since it announced that it would likely miss its revenue targets because of the virus outbreak in China. The stock is down 7% since the announcement and there is increasing speculation the damage may not be transient. The whole incident calls into question whether the country is too reliant on China for production (and also for sales). Many Wall Street analysts have pushed lost revenue for this quarter into other quarters, but it is not at all inconceivable to think that some of the sales may be lost permanently as consumers could have bought rival products, or just won’t switch at all (especially those in China).

FINSUM: Apple should probably work to adjust its supply chain as a reaction to this, but that seems unlikely. Hard to tell how this plays out; it depends on the news cycle.

(New York)

The bond market looks primed for a big correction, says a top asset manager. Bonds have been surging in price as yields fall because of fears over coronavirus, but they seem likely to have a sharp pullback once the news cycle focusing on the virus moves on. That is the argument coming out of asset manager WisdomTree. According to the firm’s head of Fixed Income Strategy, if we have a sharp “V” shaped recovery, then bonds might see yields jump sharply (and prices fall sharply).

FINSUM: WisdomTree made one other excellent point that is not as obvious. US companies are starting to seek alternative suppliers away from China. As this happens, there is likely to be a transitory pickup in inflation since prices are probably going to be higher from suppliers outside of China. Accordingly, bond markets might also react sharply to a rise in inflation.

(New York)

Fixed Index Annuities have suffered from some bad selling practices over the years, and resultantly, bad publicity. However, they can serve some very important roles in a portfolio. There are a few things to remember about them. Firstly, they were designed to compete with CD-like returns while giving complete principal protection. Don’t think of them as a market growth product, they are a life insurance product. Additionally, they are a very good vehicle for income rider guarantees, or contractually agreed guaranteed income. This latter point is especially relevant given that 10,000 Baby Boomers are reaching retirement age every day and we live in a near pension-less world.

FINSUM: When carefully considered and utilized, FIAs can be excellent products that provide steady income and peace of mind.

(New York)

We have ben warning for weeks that as the coronavirus continued to spread, airline and other travel stocks would continue to be wounded (and likely not recover soon). That is happening n a big way today as news of a quarantine in Italy sent markets into a panic about the spread of the disease beyond China. Cruise ships and airline stocks are taking body blows as a result, with Delta and American down 7% and 10% respectively.

FINSUM: These are massive losses, and the worst part about it is that there is unlikely to be a “V” shaped recovery in these sectors, as it will take some time for the public’s fear of the virus (and thus travel) to wane even after things start to get better.