(New York)

Small caps have had a great run since the market’s bottom in March. The IWM ETF, which is the market’s effective benchmark for small cap performance has had an astonishing year. Since October alone IWM has returned 35%. If you look since the beginning of March, the return is over 100%. Many would be okay with earning that in almost a decade! With that in mind, some contend that it is time to take profits as the asset class is priced for perfection.

FINSUM: This is an interesting and classic debate. If performance is so stellar, should you take the victory and get out, or stick with your winner? If momentum investing has taught us anything in the last half decade, it is to stick with winners. Looking more fundamentally, small caps have historically outperformed when the economy is growing, so there should be some tailwind.

(New York)

With the calendar flipping to 2021, the big question on everyone’s mind is what 2021 will hold. 2020 was an exceptionally wild, and ultimately very profitable, year for investors. And within the final few months of 2020 was a developing buy signal that rarely occurs. That signal was the constant revision of earnings estimates in an upward direction. Remember that analysts’ earnings estimates are very frequently revised just before earnings are released, and the large majority of the time those revisions are towards the downside. However, in nearly every week of Q4, revisions moved estimates higher. According to Jefferies, “We’d argue that this is one of the most important tailwinds for equities, as earnings revisions are rarely positive”.

FINSUM: Revising earnings upwards breaks almost all rules of the equity research game, so when it happens it is quite notable. This suggests some strongly positive momentum for the economy.

(New York)

Munis had a wild and rough year in 2020. Everyone who invests in the sector is wondering what’s next. While the lack of direct state and municipal aid in the recent congressional package is a downer for muni investors, there is a lot to be happy about. Election certainty, good news on the vaccine front, and the inauguration of Biden are all raising the sector’s prospects. Biden is seen as more likely to help local state and municipalities with aid, which has raised prospects for the sector. Downgrades are a risk, but widespread defaults seem unlikely.

FINSUM: On the whole, things seem like they are set up for a pretty positive year. As to the possibility of downgrades, it is worth noting that downgrades usually trail economic performance, so they would take a while to come through.

(Washington)

As of last Wednesday, Trump-appointed SEC chief Jay Clayton has departed, with an interim head now in place. That means the Trump era is effectively over at the agency. It is now Biden’s turn to take the reins, and according to industry experts, that likely means two big changes. The first is the type of SEC chief he will choose, and the second is the nature of Reg BI. On the chairperson front, it is rumored that Biden with choose Preet Bharara, a former prosecutor, which would be more in line with Obama era chief Mary Jo White. This would be a departure from Clayton, who is also a lawyer, but worked on behalf of corporate clients. Secondly, the nature of Reg BI would likely change in substantial ways. “Best interest” seems very likely to be defined under Biden; and additionally, enforcement efforts will likely be stepped up considerably versus the status quo.

FINSUM: Our instinct is the SEC is going to be a totally different animal under Biden, as a definition of “best interest” and rigorous enforcement efforts would significantly change the general wealth management regulatory environment. Plus, a prosecutor as head of the SEC sort of says everything you need to know what about what the enforcement regime might look like.

(New York)

Munis have long been very popular with HNW clients because of their tax exempt income. However, a new—and slightly confusing—part of the industry is increasingly becoming popular. That new niche is taxable muni bonds. According to Barron’s “Taxable municipal bonds are the fastest-growing sector in U.S. fixed income. This year, issuance has totaled more than $170 billion, double the $85 billion sold in all of 2019. The total market has grown to $700 billion—sizable but still below the $3.7 trillion tax-exempt muni market”. Many think the new vaccines will give a boost to munis, which have suffered under COVID.

FINSUM: If you are interested in this market, check out Invesco’s Taxable Municipal Bond ETF (BAB).

Dear FINSUM readers, we want to gauge your interest in a potential new ETF coming to market in 2021. As many of you will know, thematic tech ETFs have had some of the best returns over the last half decade, and there is a new ETF in the works that appears like it might have found another niche for excellent growth.

The M2M (symbol: MTOM), or machine-to-machine, economy is one where the smart, autonomous, networked and economic independent machines or devices act as the participants, carrying on the necessary activities of production, distribution, and allocation with little to no human intervention. It is often referred to as the fourth stage of the industrial revolution. M2M transforms traditional industries into technology industries. The enabling technologies include five G, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, edge computing, big data, blockchain, quantum computing and, of course, the internet of things.

Please tell us what you think of MTOM in the form of a 30-second survey (2 multiple choice questions).

(Washington)

Sneaking in right after Christmas and just before a change of administration, the SEC has announced an important rule change that affects all advisors. In particular, the SEC has updated a rule that has not been touched in decades and was increasingly out of touch with reality. The change has to do with marketing communications, particularly those through internet channels. According to Barron’s, “The new regulation also allows financial advisors to use testimonials, endorsements, and third-party ratings to woo potential clients, as long as they meet certain conditions”. SEC chief Jay Clayton commented that “The marketing rule reflects important updates to the traditional advertising and solicitation regimes, which have not been amended for decades, despite our evolving financial markets and technology. This comprehensive framework for regulating advisers’ marketing communications recognizes the increasing use of electronic media and mobile communications and will serve to improve the quality of information available to investors”.

FINSUM: Advisors have had to tread very lightly in digital communications/advertising for years because of a high degree of uncertainty about what was permissible. This goes a long way towards making that very clear.

(New York)

The new year brings many opportunities for advisors. One which is not utilized enough is the implementation of goals-based investing. The new year naturally brings a focus on goals, resolutions, and planning, making it the perfect time to get clients to commit to defining their goals and how their portfolios can get them there. Goals-based investing has been known to help get clients to really commit to their investments and stay in the market for the long haul.

FINSUM: This approach can get help clients get more bought into their own planning and strategies and help give meaning to why they are saving/sacrificing/investing. Just make sure the goals they give are genuine, as many clients will not put enough thought into describing these. There are also a number of funds that directly cater to a goals-based approach.

(New York)

2020 was a very unique year for recruiting. In particular, despite the obvious market and economic turmoil, it was a year in which almost all aspects of going independent got more favorable. Not only did working from home making recruiting conversations with new firms easier, but working from home itself made going independent seem less daunting. Further, firms’ appetite to offer great packages to recruit has grown considerably since this time last year, so it is certainly an advisors’ market when it comes to moving.

FINSUM: One other point to mention here is that clients themselves have also gotten more comfortable with their advisors being independent. The lack of office visits and growth of Zoom communication has limited the need for the big well-known logo in the office lobby when clients arrive. Independents seem likely to gain more market share.

(New York)

The annual next-year forecast cycle for Wall Street’s investment banks is in and some of the findings are interesting. As usual, banks are fairly bullish. However, that was certainly not automatic this year given the huge tumult in markets in 2020. One particular forecast stood out—Goldman Sachs. The bank’s research team, led by David Kostin, has its official 2021 S&P 500 price target as 4,200, or just about 14% ahead of today. Interestingly, the bank also thinks gold is going to rise strongly, from the mid 1,800s today to 2,300. According to Kostin, “On absolute metrics like price/earnings...the market is very expensive relative to its history, in the 90th percentile or greater … But relative to interest rates, the stock market is somewhat attractively valued. Those are two different stories—absolute valuation versus relative valuation”.

FINSUM: As tough as it is to swallow on a historical basis, we think the interest-rates measured basis for current valuations makes a great deal of sense.