Displaying items by tag: energy

Friday, 29 December 2023 03:02

Expect Volatility to Continue for Oil in 2024

This year has seen some big swings in crude oil prices given a variety of developments. These include rising US oil production, OPEC production cuts, the ongoing war in Ukraine, rising tensions in the MIddle East following Hamas’ attack, and a slowing global economy. As a result, crude oil prices ended the year down 10%. 

 

Entering 2024, these will continue to be major themes that need to be monitored. At its last meeting, OPEC reduced its production by 2.2 million barrels per day and said that more cuts may be necessary to support the price. But, there is increasing skepticism whether countries will actually abide given that many are reliant on oil revenue. 

 

Another challenge for OPEC is that US oil production continues to rise. Next year, it’s forecast to be 13.3 million barrels per day, an increase from this year’s average of 13 million barrels per day. Companies like Exxon Mobil and Chevron recently made major acquisitions of domestic producers and are also increasing capital expenditures. Unlike smaller producers, these majors are able to take advantage of economies of scale to push their costs lower and remain profitable with lower prices. 

 

OPEC now only has control of 51% of the crude oil market which is the lowest in decades. This raises the possibility that Saudi Arabia could choose to increase the supply to temporarily crash the price of oil in order to punish these producers and take back market share, although most analysts believe this is unlikely. 

 

On the other side, demand is projected to grow at the smallest rate in a year - 1.3 million barrels per day. In 2023, oil demand increased by 1.8 million barrels per day.  In part, this is due to a slowing global economy especially in China. 


Finsum: Oil has been quite weak to end the year despite several bullish catalysts. In hindsight, the most important development has been rising US oil production which is expected to hit a new record next year. 

 

Published in Eq: Energy
Friday, 22 December 2023 17:16

Energy Sector Has Upside in 2024: Fidelity

Energy stocks underperformed in 2023 due to supply being stronger than expected, while demand was muted due to softer economic growth in Asia and Europe. For next year, Maurice FitzMaurice, Fidelity’s energy sector portfolio manager, is bullish on the sector as he sees oil prices remaining high. Additionally, he expects increased investments in international and offshore production. 

 

While many are focused on the recent decline in oil prices, FitzMaurice believes that fundamentals support higher prices, and he points to low levels of CAPEX over the past decade as a major factor. Even though investment in production has recently increased, it will take years for it to come online and meaningfully impact supply. He predicts that US shale production will see slower growth due to higher costs and less productive wells, and OPEC will remain vigilant to support prices. 

 

In terms of subsectors, he favors energy equipment and services companies. He believes that more investment is required to meet the world’s need for oil, and higher levels of CAPEX should persist for multiple years especially given nearly a decade of underinvestment. Additionally, there is limited capacity in these subsectors which should result in significant pricing power and higher margins. In terms of which companies to target, he advises seeking out companies trading at discounted valuations, a healthy balance sheet, and a disciplined approach to capital allocation that has some sort of competitive advantage. 


Finsum: Fidelity’s energy sector portfolio manager shared his outlook for the sector next year. He is most bullish on energy services and equipment stocks due to the start of a multiyear investment cycle. 

 

Published in Eq: Energy

According to Citi, energy stocks will struggle in 2024 due to rising spare oil capacity. This is essentially the amount of oil production that can be quickly brought online and sustained for up to 3 months. Historically, energy stocks have underperformed in years with 3 million barrels per day of spare capacity. 

Currently, estimates are for an average of 4 million barrels per day of spare capacity. Due to this, the bank is forecasting oil prices to end 2024 in the low $70s. It notes that despite the formation of OPEC+, spare capacity has continued to rise with 80% of the growth coming from the US. 

YTD, oil prices are down by 4%, while energy stocks are lower by 3% despite production cuts by OPEC. Citi sees OPEC continuing to act to support the price of oil, but it will have to sacrifice market share to do so, especially given that current prices continue to support capacity growth. 

In terms of positives for the sector, it notes that many companies in the sector are in a strong financial position which makes them less sensitive to the higher-rate environment. Additionally, there has been a surge of M&A activity in the sector which should also support valuations. 


Finsum: Energy stocks have underperformed in 2023 amid falling oil prices. Citi sees this continuing in 2024 especially with increasing spare capacity. 

Published in Eq: Energy
Thursday, 07 December 2023 11:13

Oil Prices Fall Despite OPEC Production Cuts

In an unexpected twist, crude oil prices declined following the OPEC meeting which ended with an announcement that there would be more production cuts in Q1 of next year. Following the Thursday meeting, oil prices fell by more than $2 and this weakness continued into Monday’s session. Since late September, WTI crude oil has dropped from the low $90s to the low $70s. 

 

The bearish reaction is likely due to the market already expecting that some sort of cuts would be announced. Further, these cuts are of a voluntary nature. Many are skeptical that there will be enough discipline among members especially given that there has been dissension at recent meetings.

 

In their statement, OPEC announced voluntary cuts totalling 2 million barrels per day. The committee also signaled concerns over weaker demand in 2024. In terms of specifics, Saudi Arabia will cut 1 million barrels per day and another 300,000 of cuts will come from Russia. However, the lack of details is adding to uncertainty over whether these cuts will actually take place especially given that smaller OPEC members have large reliance on oil revenue and tend to be unreliable, when it comes to production discipline. 


Finsum: Crude oil prices declined following last week’s OPEC meeting. This is despite members agreeing on voluntary production cuts. 

 

Published in Eq: Energy
Wednesday, 29 November 2023 14:56

Oil Prices Under Pressure As OPEC Unity Under Pressure

Oil prices were marginally higher headed into this week’s Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting, following a decline upon the news that the meeting had been delayed. 

 

According to reports, this delay was due to divisions among OPEC members when it came to further production cuts and restrictions on output. It’s an indication of clashing interests and incentives. As a collective, OPEC’s best interest is to reduce output to ensure that oil prices stay as high as possible. As individual countries, each country is incentivized to produce as much oil as possible to maximize revenue.

 

Another factor weighing on oil prices is expectations that demand will be weaker than expected in 2024 due to a slowing global economy particularly in Europe and Asia. Deutsche Bank recently warned that there is a strong possibility that the US falls into a recession next year. China’s economy remains stagnant more than a year after Covid protocols have been relaxed. 

 

Iranian oil also continues to flood the market despite sanctions on these countries. Iranian production is reportedly at a 5-year high, although there are some who believe that sanctions may be more aggressively enforced due to the conflict in Hamas. 


Finsum: Crude oil prices have dropped $20 over the last few weeks. One factor has been a lack of unity among OPEC member nations around production cuts.

 

Published in Eq: Energy
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