Displaying items by tag: economy

In a striking twist, the Biden administration’s final week coincided with the best stock market performance since Trump’s re-election, fueled by a bond market rally following unexpectedly mild inflation data. The S&P 500 surged nearly 3%, just shy of the 6000 mark, while the Dow posted its strongest week in months, aided by a sharp decline in 10-year Treasury yields. 

Despite this upbeat sendoff, Biden’s term closes with a mixed economic legacy: robust job creation and stock market gains were offset by a historic drop in real disposable income and surging national debt. The inflation respite behind the rally may not indicate lasting relief, as core inflation remains stubbornly stalled near 3.3%. 

Rising crude oil and gasoline prices threaten to reignite inflationary pressures, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve’s path toward rate cuts. As the market shifts focus to Trump’s fiscal policy, investors brace for more stimulative measures that could push long-term Treasury yields past 5%, setting the stage for new challenges in both equity and bond markets.

Finsum: The most recent Fed minutes suggest a strong concern over taming inflation in the new administration so keep those inflation strategies handy. 

The US economy surprised expectations in 2024 by maintaining steady growth despite elevated interest rates, a cooling labor market, and political uncertainty tied to the presidential election. It outpaced other Group of Seven nations, with household spending driving much of this resilience. 

Wage growth outstripped inflation, and record household wealth bolstered consumer confidence, even as Americans depleted pandemic-era savings. 

However, challenges loomed: inflation proved stubborn, borrowing costs strained housing and manufacturing, and delinquencies rose among credit-dependent consumers. Labor market signals also hinted at strain, with hiring slowing, job openings shrinking, and unemployment rates ticking up. 

Finsum: While the Federal Reserve began easing rates later in the year, its cautious stance underscores the delicate balance needed to sustain growth amid persistent inflationary pressures.

The U.S. economy remains robust, with Bank of America economists projecting annualized growth of 2.4% in 2025, surpassing consensus estimates. Despite uncertainties tied to President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed policies, including tariffs, tax cuts, and immigration restrictions, the U.S. is seen as better equipped than other nations to handle potential economic shocks. 

Trump's tariff agenda, while inflationary and potentially disruptive, would likely have greater global repercussions than domestic ones, reflecting the U.S. economy's resilience. Key indicators, such as high consumer confidence, strong retail sales, and moderated inflation, highlight the country's economic strength. 

Bank of America maintains optimism, predicting that any tariffs implemented will be less severe than campaign promises and that a full-blown trade war can be avoided. 

Finsum: We are not seeing the same resilliance around the globe and this could draw additional investments. 

As the economy’s taken a wicked turn toward the dark side, the clamor for fixed income ETFs has parachuted, according to usnews.com.

Peng Cheng, JP Morgan strategist, explained that this includes retail investors, who hopped on the bandwagon last month, loading into credit ETFs like SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF and the share iBoxx $ Inv Grade Corporate Bond ETF.

Earlier in the month, a new series of exchanged-traded funds launched, the US Benchmark Series. That will help ease they way for individual and institutional investors to trade the must updated individual benchmark U.S. Treasuries, which will shone a light on the maturing ETFs in the fixed income category, according to reuters.com. "This gives (investors) a tool to say, we really want to focus on how we execute our investment strategy, as opposed to how effectively we trade Treasury bonds," said F/m President Alex Morris.

Dems are including a 1% tax on share buybacks in Biden’s climate and tax bill which is being pitched as an inflation bill. The tax was included to get Arizona Senator Krysten Sinema on board with the legislation. Most analysts say this will raise tensions with Wallstreet as investors will be apprehensive about the impact immediately and what it opens the door to moving forward. Many companies have recently engaged in massive buybacks using the excess profits to reinvest in their own companies. Experts say this could generate a lot of revenue, more than the carried interest which is expected to bring in $14 billion.

Finsum: Buy back boogeyman at it again. This legislation stops companies from doing the most responsible thing they can with excess cash.