Displaying items by tag: Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs put out a big warning to the market yesterday. The bank’s fixed income division says that it thinks yields on ten-year Treasuries are going to rise to 3.5% within two quarters as the Fed continues to hikes rates and the market sells off. Goldman called its prediction “not very brave”, indicating it thinks yields might be higher, especially since it feels the Fed will hike four times this year. Goldman’s forecast for rates is much higher than most analysts, so if it comes to pass, it could have big ramifications for equity investors.
FINSUM: If yields rose to 3.5% or above that quickly, we expect the equity markets would perform very poorly, and it may be the kind of scenario where we have a recession.
Goldman has been trying intensely for the last few years to develop a much bigger consumer side of its business. The bank has debuted consumer savings products and tried to extend its reach into consumer products generally. Now, it might be take a huge step. The bank is reportedly in talks with Apple to provide point-of-sale financing to customers who are buying Apple’s products. The bank sees an opportunity to provide lower interest financing than credit cards, where most people charge such purchases. The deal is not closed, and could still fall apart.
FINSUM: There is a whole slew of interesting considerations here. For one, will using Goldman Sachs for financing hurt Apple’s image? Two, is Goldman trying to make a push into credit cards with this move?
Goldman Sachs has a taken a lot of hits lately. After the Financial Crisis the bank decided to go against the direction of its rivals and keep its large trading and fixed income businesses robust. The logic was that the market cycle would return and Goldman would mint money as they would have the only major division intact. The short story is that it never happened, as FICC revenues have plummeted. Goldman still sticks to their mindset on trading, which has hurt the stock. The but the truth is that the business is much more diversified than ever before and profits are rising, hitting an almost 11% return on equity in 2017. “If they can do almost an 11% return on equity in a bad year, I’ll take that”, says a major fund manager.
FINSUM: The gloom over Goldman’s weakness in fixed income is helping create a good buying opportunity for what is a thriving bank.
Goldman Sachs is going on the record warning of “extreme” optimism in markets after stocks’ torrid start to the year. The bank says its cross-asset measure of risk appetite is the highest it has been since 1991 (!). The bank says the risk of losses is higher now, but that in their experience, signals from the macro economy tend to trump signals from risk appetite. Therefore, given that the world’s economy is moving nicely, the market may have more room to run. That said, Goldman is nervous about markets, saying “Risk appetite is now at its highest level on record, which leads to the question of what future returns can be”.
FINSUM: We think this grey-haired bull market still has some juice in it, but our big fear is how hard a recession might hit the markets (given high valuations), not just the economy.
Goldman Sachs has stuck to its guns with its trading division despite numerous changes to the industry and its competitors revamping. However, the bank finally appears to be changing its strategy. Since 2009, Goldman’s fixed income trading revenue has shrunk from over $23 bn in 2009, to just over $5 bn in 2017. Now the bank is changing its focus away from serving hedge fund clients, whom it has become overly reliant on, and towards big corporate clients, who offer a different sort of “flow” business based on interest swaps and other corporate needs.
FINSUM: We think it is smart for Goldman to diversify the focus on its fixed income unit. Especially since the $20bn plus revenue days don’t look like they are coming back.