Displaying items by tag: China

In an article for Reuters, David Randall  discusses the outlook for the energy sector in the second-half of the year, and why some contrarian investors are betting on a rebound. In the first-half of the year, energy underperformed the broader market despite economic growth performing better than expected, while OPEC countries embarked on supply cuts.

The major headwind for oil has been weak demand from Europe and China, resulting in oil prices that are down 10% YTD. Despite expectations of continued rate hikes in the coming months, many investors are increasing exposure to energy stocks due to attractive valuations and expectations of a pickup in economic growth. 

Supply cuts from OPEC should also support the market especially as domestic US production has also been trending lower in recent months, reaching their lowest levels since April of last year. 

On a valuation basis, the sector is quite cheap relative to the broader market with a cumulative forward price to earnings ratio of 10.4, while the S&P 500 has a forward price to earnings ratio of 19. The energy sector also pays a better yield at 3.9% vs 1.5%.

Finsum: Energy stocks underperformed in the first-half of the year following a strong 2022. Here’s why some are betting on a rebound in the second-half of the year. 

Last week, the International Energy Agency declared that the world will reach peak oil demand by the end of the decade. It attributes this to an increasing share of energy produced by renewables, the explosion in EV adoption, and continued increases in efficiency. 

Due to these factors, it sees growth in oil demand growing marginally over the next few years before peaking in 2030. This year, the agency sees $2.8 trillion invested in the energy sector with $1.7 trillion going into non-fossil fuel sources like nuclear energy, renewables, and EVs. 

Out of this group, solar is the leader with nearly $700 billion in investments which is nearly equivalent to all of the capital spending on oil. In total, fossil fuel investments which include coal, oil, and natural gas are expected to total $1 trillion. 

In terms of EVs, the agency forecasts that 14 million will be sold this year. It also sees continued adoption with electric buses and trucks gaining market share. 

Overall, the IEA believes that investors and fossil fuel companies need to make appropriate adjustments to account for these shifts in behavior and consumption. 

Finsum: The IEA recently declared that oil demand will peak in 2030 due to increasing EV adoption, growth in renewables, and increasing efficiencies. 

In an article for Oilprice.com, Alex Kimani discussed three reasons why Goldman Sachs is bullish on the energy sector. The bank sees Brent and WTI crude oil trending higher to $100 and $95 per barrel over the next 12 months, respectively. 

The bank sees faster growth in China as supportive of commodity demand overall. Regarding energy, it sees supply pressures from OPEC+ production cuts, embargoes on Russian crude shipments and global growth as key drivers.

Some other reasons cited for favoring energy are attractive valuations. Currently, it has a P/E ratio of 6.7 which is the cheapest among the 11 major sectors, and this is considerably cheaper than the S&P 500’s P/E of 22. 

Despite a slowing economy and lower energy prices, Q1 earnings have remained quite strong. Net margins improved from 11.8% to 10.4%. This is in contrast to most sectors which are experiencing margin compression. Further, earnings are forecast to remain stable over the next couple of years due to low capex, higher costs for new projects, and geopolitical risk. 

Overall, energy stocks offer investors attractive valuations and robust earnings growth potential. The longer-term picture remains attractive due to longer-term supply trends, while demand is expected to remain steady.

Seems that fixed income’s calling and it might pay to presume it’s not someone hawking insurance.

In 2023, it “has a huge potential” to dispense strong returns, according to Joanna Gallegos, co founder of BondBloxx Investment Management, reported yahoo.com, which carried an article earlier in the year which originally was published on ETFTrends.com. That said, it remains a good idea to be cautious.

Worth investing time in, especially: high yield corporate debt. That’s because they offer high yields and it’s projected by Bond Boxx that corporate defaults, compared to their long term average, will remain lower.

Tormented by hyper interest rate spikes that culminated in spiraling bonds yields, 2022 was one of the worse for fixed income, added money.usnews.com.

It sparked a deep dive of price of fixed income assets, and longer duration issues in particular.  

This year? Oh how the page turns. Paul Malloy, head of municipals at Vanguard, said "the 2023 outlook is drastically different than the position we found ourselves in last year,” Indeed, fixed-income investors started 2022 with a near-zero federal funds rate, but are now entering 2023 with a rate of 4%-plus. According to Malloy, the Federal Reserve "front-loaded" much of its policy tightening this cycle and is likely nearing a wrap.

“The fixed income asset class has a huge potential to deliver better performance in 2023,” Gallegos said on CNBC’s “Worldwide Exchange.” “We’re at new rate levels we haven’t seen in over a decade plus, and so, you’re really resetting valuations in a way that are very attractive.”

On March 15th, the International Energy Agency raised its estimate for global oil demand in 2023 by another 100,000 b/d as rebounding air traffic and pent-up Chinese demand push consumption to record highs. In its latest monthly oil report, the energy watchdog said it now sees global oil demand averaging 102.02 million b/d in 2023. That’s 2 million b/d higher than in 2022. The IEA estimates that gains will accelerate over the year, rising to 2.6 million b/d year on year in the fourth quarter, from 710,000 b/d in the current quarter. In the report, IEA stated, "Global oil demand growth started 2023 with a whimper but is projected to end the year with a bang .... Rebounding jet fuel use and a resurgent China will see an overall Q1-Q4 ramp-up of 3.2 million b/d, the largest relative in-year increase since 2010 with oil use surging to 103.2 million b/d in second-half 2023." The agency attributes the rise in demand to China's economic momentum, with rebounding February Purchasing Managers' Index data and robust air traffic demand. The IEA said Chinese mobility mostly stabilized after January's "remarkable bounce." It also added that Chinese air traffic with domestic flights is now well above pre-pandemic levels. Due to this, the IEA raised its estimate for Chinese jet/kerosene demand by 60,000 b/d.

Finsum:In its recent monthly oil market report, the International Energy Agency raised its estimate for global oil demand this year by another 100,000 b/d as rebounding air traffic and pent-up Chinese demand push consumption to record highs.