Economy
Investors are shortening up their duration to the ultra-short fixed income ETFs which were first created about 15 years ago. Originally used for cash management, many investors are looking to these ETFs for security in the economic turmoil flummoxing markets currently. Generally, these assets have been tough to classify but by in large they are of duration of less than a year. SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF and State Street Global Advisors saw large inflows in the first half of 2022. While these assets generally get an uptick during volatility, they are seeing special attention due to interest rate risk. With inflation setting 40-year records investors want security against the Fed's rapid tightening cycle which is pushing up yields and bond prices lower. This means they are buying ultra-short duration debt with less risk.
Finsum: The latest GDP release will be a huge tell for the Fed because it could stall tightening if we slip into a recession.
Artificial Intelligence has revolutionized many industries, but it has also had a profound impact on the financial world. The next phase could be producing alpha-generating model portfolios. Models are already widely used in the financial world with more than 4/5ths of advisors utilizing them for their clients. Companies like UX Wealth Partners are taking that to the next level by integrating the latest machine learning techniques into their strategies to gain an edge. One such example is AIQQAI which uses patterns and probabilities to determine a bullish or bearish outlook on the market for the next week which decides how much to invest in cash vs the QQQ ETF. This has led it to have a 26 percentage point advantage over the QQQ in almost the whole first half of 2022. Companies utilizing models and embracing technology could forma new path moving forward.
Finsum: Fintech innovations such as machine learning will be critical to the growth of models, ETFs, and direct indexing in the next decade.
Market volatility is seemingly endless these days and with more inflation or even worse, a recession, potentially around the corner, investors need options. However, knowing if the market has bottomed out is hard which is why you should employ a strategy you might already use to get through high volatility, dollar-cost averaging. Most likely already implemented in your 401(k) contributions, dollar-cost averaging is putting fixed amounts over periods of time into the market, say monthly or bi-weekly. This helps mitigate the risks of lump-sum investing at the wrong time but still keeps a steady long-term approach to your financial investment. Dollar-cost averaging is the Goldilocks solution to timing the market and sitting out the volatility and for young investors, it's an especially great strategy to keep in a long-term approach.
Finsum: No need to get wildly creative in volatile times, simple strategies can be enough to navigate high volatility.
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Fossil fuels are far from synonymous with ESG investing, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has upended the market. While many countries have made vows to cut global emissions and be net zero by 2050, that is getting put on pause as they are considering energy security first. Many euro funds have underweighted fossil fuels historically, but as of late almost 6% of ESG funds now own Shell which was previously zero at the end of 2021. The underperformance of funds is certainly a part of this and many are leaning on commodities surge in order to help recover. Moreover, the euro area has passed a regulation that includes gas and nuclear power as part of ESG. While some believe this is a good step because it encourages cleaner ffs such as natural gas others are worried it’s a slippery slope.
Finsum: This is a radical step in ESG regulation, and appears to be on pause as inflation has all countries concerned.
According to a study from Morningstar Indexes, pension funds and other asset owners in North America and Europe are adopting sustainable investment practices for their portfolios. Based on the “Voice of the Asset Owner” survey, which was based on 14 interviews with asset owners, pension funds saw ESG investments as a core element of investing. The asset owners stated that the inclusion of ESG investments was being driven by both their conviction in sustainable investing and client demand. The fund managers believe that ESG enhances their investment processes and does not subtract from investment returns. While implementing ESG can challenging due to shifting definitions and standards, their clients view climate as a big concern and are urging them to address global warming. While ESG has become a hot political topic in the U.S., pension funds are full steam ahead with ESG in their portfolios.
Finsum: Due to client demand and a conviction in sustainable investing, more and more pension funds are incorporating ESG strategies as a core element in their portfolios.
Over the past four weeks, U.S. bond funds were seeing net outflows as the bond prices dropped. However, investors were net buyers of U.S. fixed funds in the week that ended on Wednesday with U.S. bond funds attracting a net $2.72 billion in purchases. This marked the first weekly inflow for U.S. fixed-income funds since June 1 according to Refinitiv Lipper data. Investors purchased $5.68 billion in U.S. government and treasury fixed-income funds, the biggest weekly inflow since October of 2018. Investors also purchased $1.59 billion in high-yield bond funds. The reverse in net flows can be attributed to increasing concerns over the economy. While fixed-income securities have seen their share of losses this year, U.S. debt is still considered a safe haven asset.
Finsum: After four weeks of outflows, US. fixed-income funds attracted $2.72 billion in net purchases due to economic concerns.