Eq: Total Market

In an article for Reuters, Mike Dolan discussed the widening gap between market volatility which has been trending lower since October of last year and headlines of various geopolitical, financial, and economic risks that are increasingly dominating headlines. The Federal Reserve is expected to hike rates despite signs that the economy continues to decelerate, considerable stress in the banking system, increasing chatter of a ‘technical default’ for the US Treasury if the debt ceiling is breached, and important data points in the coming weeks in the form of earnings from tech giants and the April jobs report. 

Despite these potential threats, the VIX, which measures stock market volatility, reached its lowest levels since November 2021. The stock market is also nearing a 20% move rise from its October lows, which many market participants would define as a new bull market. Volatility is similarly depressed in the Treasury market and the currency markets despite upcoming central bank meetings, indicating that this divergence between the VIX and headline risk is not unique to equities.


Finsum: There is a widening gap between various headline risk and market measures of volatility which are at multi month lows. 

In an analyst note, JPMorgan’s Chief Equity Strategist Marko Kolovanic discussed the anomaly between an increasingly shaky market and economic outlook, in contrast to the S&P 500 volatility index (VIX) which continues to trend lower. 

A week ago, the VIX dropped to 16 which is its lowest level since November 2021, despite the S&P 500 being 16% lower compared to 17 months ago. Yet, economic growth continues to decelerate, inflation is meaningfully higher, and the Fed remains in a hawkish posture. 

Kolovanic notes that we are not likely to see any abatement of these pressures in the coming months given the tightening of financial conditions and rising recession risk, while the Fed’s priority remains stamping out inflation even at the expense of the economy and labor market. Further, he notes stress in the banking system and drumbeat of rising tensions regarding China, Russia, and an upcoming election cycle.

He says depressed volatility is due to technical reasons, primarily the selling of short-term options which leads to dealer buying of stocks and volatility leaking lower. Adding to this is continued resilience in Q1 earnings while many were anticipating a meaningful decline. 


Finsum: Volatility is at 17 month lows despite stocks being much lower. JPMorgan’s Marko Kolovanic explains some reasons behind this discrepancy. 

Yo: model portfolios. You’re on a proverbial roll. 

In recent years, the acceleration of third party model portfolios has been the bomb, according to wisdontree.com. Over the last five years, assets in model portfolios -- leaving out nary a one – have spiked a minimum of 18% annually, estimated Broadridge. Over the next five years, they’re expected to roll past $10.3T in AUM.

That said, even in light of this growth, advisors are questioning their ability to leverage third party models in the practice, dwelling on, for instance, “which of my clients are a good fit for third-party models?”

To abet their ability to manage client investments, advisors can cherry pick from a burgeoning cocktail of model portfolios, according to thinkadvisor.com.

As of March of last year, there was nearly $350 billion in model portfolios, Morningstar reported in June. That’s a leap of 22% over the nine months before. As of November of last year, more than 2,500 models were covered in the firm’s database – more than doubling the amount the prior two years.

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