In an article for MarketWatch, Mark Hulbert discusses the collapse of the volatility index (VIX) over the last couple of months, and why it could be a harbinger of a sustained stock market rally according to historical data. 

According to Hulbert when the VIX reaches a fresh, 3-year low, it’s likely to remain low for a couple more months which implies further gains for equities. However, this view is contrary to the consensus expectations on Wall Street which see further erosion in the economic outlook, causing the economy to stumble into a recession. This perspective sees the low Vix as a sign of complacency rather than a ‘continuation’ signal.

Hulbert points to history. Since 1990, the best performing months from a risk and return perspective, have come with low VIX readings. Based on this data, investors should increase equity allocations as the volatility index declines and reduce it as it rises.

Another benefit of this strategy is that it dampens the impact of volatility on the portfolio which increases the odds that investors will stick to their investment plan and not let the market’s twists and turns shake them out of their holdings. 

Finsum: Many on Wall Street see the plunge in the volatility index as a contrarian signal, implying complacency. Mark Hulbert disagrees and sees it as the start of a sustained rally.

In an article for SeekingAlpha, Armada ETF Advisors make the case for why public real estate is due to outperform vs private real estate given the gap in valuations. Over the last couple of years, the combination of the Fed’s rate hiking campaign and weakness in segments of the real estate market like commercial real estate have led to major drawdowns for publicly traded REITs. 

In contrast, private real estate has fared much better. According to Armada, these types of wide differentials in performance have been reliable indicators of mean reversion, historically. In addition to favorable valuations, the firm also believes that the headwind of higher rates is about to recede given trends in inflation and budding signs that a recession is imminent.

Over the last 2 decades, there have been 8 instances when REITs underperformed by more than 10%. Each instance was followed by a period of strong REIT performance in absolute and relative terms. 

It’s also a rare opportunity for investors to acquire high-quality real estate assets at cheaper prices than what is available in private markets. Typically, the situation is inverted given the greater liquidity of publicly traded REITs. 

Finsum: Private real estate has outperformed public real estate by a significant amount over the past year. But, it could be an indication that a major mean reversion is imminent. 

In an article for Reuters, Ross Kerber reported on Tesla being added back to the S&P 500 ESG index following the EV maker adding environmental disclosures regarding its material sourcing and hiring practices.

Tesla was removed from the index last year following a series of controversies including a racial discrimination lawsuit and reports of crashes due to its autopilot program. At the time, CEO Elon Musk had been dismissive of the movement, labeling it a ‘scam’. S&P attributed the change to the company providing more information about climate risks and information about its supply chain management strategy.

The move is seen as symbolic given that only about $8 billion in assets is linked to the S&P 500 ESG index. However, it could start other ESG funds adding the EV leader to its holdings. 

Currently, the S&P ESG Index is going through this annual rebalancing with 39 companies being added, while 23 were removed. Notably, some of these moves have drawn scrutiny from people on both sides of the aisle given the additions of Chevron and Fox, while Exxon Mobil had previously been a member of the index, while Tesla was excluded. 

Finsum: Tesla has been added back to the S&P ESG Index after providing disclosures about its hiring practices, climate risks, and supply chain strategy.

In an article for ThinkAdvisor, Dinah Wisenberg Brin discussed a recent bullish commentary on various segments of the fixed income market from John Hancock’s co-chief investment strategist Matthew Miskin. 

Miskin sees the current inverted yield curve as due to normalize in the coming months as the Federal Reserve embarks on a cutting cycle given the firm’s view that the economy should continue to decelerate along with cooling inflation. This will create a bond ‘bull steepener’ as short-term rates decline.

It sees a recession materializing over the next couple of quarters which would be a positive tailwind for fixed income. He sees opportunities in intermediate duration bonds which historically have performed the best following yield curve inversions. Further, he sees value in the space given that the average investment-grade, intermediate bond portfolio is trading at 90 cents on the dollar with a 5% yield. 

Miskin is also bullish on municipal bonds given historically attractive yields of 7% on a ta-equivalent basis for the highest earners. In terms of equities, the firm is not a believer in the current stock market rally given weakness in earnings and its expectations of a further softening of the economic picture. 

Finsum: John Hancock’s co-chief investment strategist is bullish on fixed income with a particular focus on intermediate duration and municipal debt.

The alternative investing trend was growing at a rapid clip over the past decade, but its seen an uptick in interest and adoption following the poor performance of stocks and bonds. While both asset classes have delivered strong, long-term results, they have performed poorly in inflationary, higher-rate environments.

In contrast, alternative investing delivered better returns while also reducing portfolio volatility. As access to this category has increased, there is more liquidity and transparency which is, in turn, attracting more interest from institutions.

In an article for Business Kora, Jung Min-Hee covers how the Korea Investment Corporation (KIC) will be increasing its allocation to alternative investments to 25%. Currently, it is the 10th largest sovereign wealth fund in the world and has $170 billion in assets. As of the start of the year, it had 22% allocated to alternatives.

In an interview, KIC President Jin Seung-ho indicated that the fund is particularly interested in private credit as he doesn’t see too much risk in this segment of the market. Concurrently, he doesn’t see the Fed cutting rates until 2024.

Finsum: Many financial advisors are nearing retirement. One option that is growing in popularity is for advisors to sell their practice but remain as an employee for a certain amount of time.