Displaying items by tag: trade war

(New York)

The stock market is in knots this week. The trade war between the US and China is increasing in intensity even as the two sides negotiate. This morning it hit a new peak as Trump hiked tariffs on $200 bn on Chinese goods. With the trade war looking more likely to continue, Goldman Sachs has recommended what it says are the best stocks for an all-out trade war. The general idea from David Kostin’s team at GS is to buy service firms, which are less exposed to tariffs and have better corporate fundamentals. Here is a list of the companies in Goldman’s selection group: Facebook, Visa, Bank of America, Walt Disney, Home Depot, Netflix, McDonalds.

FINSUM: This is an interesting mix of large and mega caps and we agree with Goldman’s simple, yet compelling thesis.

(Washington)

President Trump followed through on his threats today, hiking tariffs on China to 25% across $200 bn worth of goods. The move came as US and Chinese negotiators have not been making much progress in talks. Beijing has vowed to retaliate, but the talks between the two nations are continuing. Trump reinforced that there was no need to rush on a deal. Stocks opened lower on the news.

FINSUM: This certainly does not seem like good news and we are starting to think it may be some time before a real deal happens, which means the issue may continue to loom over the market.

(New York)

The trade war is scaring investors and tightening up markets. Benchmark indices have had a rough time this week and new data on investor flows should add to worries. UBS group, the world’s largest wealth manager, has just put out data on the holdings of its high net worth portfolios. The info shows that the world’s wealthy have 32% of their capital sitting in cash. In the US the figure was lower, at just 23%. UBS think that investors have become too conservative.

FINSUM: This is actually quite a bullish indicator for us. The markets have managed to rise a lot this year and there is still a lot of dry powder to push them higher.

(New York)

Investors are currently worried about the trade war between China and the US. Tensions have reached a new peak this week after threats from President Trump regarding hiking the tariff rate to 25%. This big development, and the trade war generally, prompted JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon to weigh in this week. “The odds of something bad happening [in trade negotiations] is now double. Whatever you thought they were — 2%, 5%, 10% is probably doubled. That’s why the market is reacting to it because they’re not just afraid of the direct effect, they’re afraid if it reverses global trade, it reverses global growth and hurts trade around the world”. All that said, he sees an 80% likelihood a deal will occur because smart people on both sides will make it happen.

FINSUM: We agree with Jamie. Both sides have a lot on the line and we think everyone will eager to seal a deal, even if a modest one, and move on. Perhaps that is western-centric thinking though.

(New York)

What is the biggest threat to the bull market? Is it a recession, high valuations, interest rate volatility? In reality, the biggest threat to the bull market might be rearing its ugly head now—a trade war. Trade tensions between the US and China have skyrocketed again this week and it has investors worried that there could be a global slowdown in trading which would sink the economy. In fact, that is the point that some don’t understand—it is not just about whether the US and China close a deal in the near term, it is about how the trade tensions the US and China create percolate through the global economy. Astute market watchers will have noticed new data out of China shows that exports have dropped, a sign of potential weakening.

FINSUM: We think cooler heads will prevail and the US and China will get a deal done. Our expectation is that it will not be ground-breaking in scope, but that it will be enough so that both countries can claim victory and investors can happily put these tensions in the rear view mirror.