Displaying items by tag: stocks

(New York)

Bloomberg has published a thoughtful and interesting article arguing that there is a little-known sign in the market that prices are likely to fall. This year’s trading activity has been in major contrast to the last few years, and not just because of more volatility. Rather retail investors have come back en masse. In the March of this year, retail trades from TD Ameritrade’s and E*Trade’s platforms accounted for more than 25% of all trading volume. Historically, investors coming back to the market is such fashion has been negative for prices.

FINSUM: If you combine this view with the reality that stocks have not really gained despite the best earnings season in many years, you do start to worry the bottom might be ready to fall out.

(Washington)

President Trump made what may turn out to be a landmark move yesterday when he announced a proposal to reign in drug prices. The plan is a blueprint to drive down costs, and it transfers more power to health insurers to compete on pricing. Medicare is also involved, as the huge US health care service has a major influence on drug prices. Critics say the plan falls well short of what Trump promised during his campaign, when he said drug companies were “getting away with murder”.

FINSUM: We do not fully have the expertise to comment on the potential effectiveness of the plan, but it certainly seems a step in the right direction, and one in which drug company shareholders don’t need to be too worried.

(New York)

The financial media and the research side of Wall Street both seem to have completely succumbed to bearishness over the last couple months. Alongside rising rates, inflation, and yields, as well as some signals about the potential end of the cycle, commentary has become decidedly negative. However, the CIO of Evercore Asset Management has just put out a contrary opinion, arguing that stocks are not overvalued and could return 7% for the next ten years. The crux of his thinking is that P/E ratios are not a good metric of valuation. Rather we should be looking at real earnings yield, which is yields minus inflation. By this metric, stocks are only at average valuations.

FINSUM: Basically this approach tries to take account of the fact that we are in a low-yield, low-inflation environment, and it does make some sense.

(New York)

If one thing is clear about markets right now, it is that they have no direction. Volatility has been very high, but not in any one direction, as prices have been bouncing around as if they were inside a pinball machine. In this vein, Barron’s makes the argument that markets may keep simply moving sideways, possibly through 2027. The article summarizes the view this way, saying “With the Fed continuing to raise rates, populism still threatening Wall Street, and baby boomers ditching stocks as they retire, the market could be stuck in a rut until the end of 2027”.

FINSUM: Nine years is a long time to move sideways! In the nearer term stocks may struggle as we are in a mid-term election year. In such times, they tend to do well in the fourth quarter.

(New York)

Markets have been very turbulent lately with no clear path forward. With that in mind, and given the stage of life (retirement) of many clients, a lot of advisors may be looking for some good yields to add to portfolios. Well, it might be good to take a look at utilities stocks. While the focus on investors has been on growth, utilities look good at the moment. Despite the fact that utilities generally lose ground when rates rise, and have lost 2.4% this year, well-run regulated utilities still look like a good buy. In particular, look for utilities that do not have massive amounts of capital tied up in a single asset, like a power plant. This means one should focus on utilities in the electricity transmission and distribution areas.

FINSUM: Beyond the yields, utilities would also seem to be quite good at defending against a downturn, as spending on them would be quite resilient in a recession.