Displaying items by tag: credit suisse
The market has been doing great. So great in fact, that many are nervous about a swift correction. Despite this, the market continues to push for new all-time highs each week. Credit Suisse weighed in on the market in a big way this week. To be clear, the bank is not exactly bearish on the market. Their overall position is “We have remained overweight equities on the back of highly supportive policy, a high ERP [equity risk premium], the start of a bond-for-equity switch and huge excess liquidity, while tactical indicators are not yet sending a sell signal”. That said, the bank warned that there was one very “high” risk to the market: the Fed. Credit Suisse thinks there is a good chance that the Fed suddenly gets less dovish in the second half of the year after some good growth in 1H. This would be a dramatic turn for investors and could risk a sharp reversal.
FINSUM: We have to agree with this risk. The huge stimulus and excess liquidity which are flooding the market are major tailwinds, so if they reversed, it would be a shock. The whole set up reminds of us what occurred in Q4 2018.
Big bank Credit Suisse thinks the stock market rally will keep going. They say the big gains this year are mostly because of improved investor sentiment on the back of a more dovish Fed, weaker inflation, and the better prospects for a US-China deal. Further, the bank’s chief US equity strategist says “Our work indicates that investors have not fully re-risked portfolios following 4Q’s turbulence—despite a sharp decline in volatility and spreads—and that valuations will drift higher as they do so”.
FINSUM: We have to tentatively agree with this view. Sentiment is up, and combined with lower valuations and the fact that investors have not fully re-entered the market, there does seem to be a good runway higher.