Displaying items by tag: biden
The general understanding among wealth management regulatory experts has been that the Biden administration was not overly likely to overturn Reg BI. However, that faith might be waning in the face of some developments out of Congress. The House Financial Services Committee, led by Maxine Waters, has been adamantly pushing for Biden to completely overturn the rule and bring in new legislation. To this point, most thought Biden would simply install a new SEC chair that would become a stronger enforcer of the rule rather than trying to write an entirely new one. And with the name of former prosecutor Preet Bharara as the rumored next head of the SEC, the focus on enforcement makes sense.
FINSUM: We wonder to what extent Biden might reward his Democratic allies in Congress by pushing an agenda that writes an entirely new rule. On the one hand, it does not appear too farfetched, but on the other, it seems Reg BI may be way down the priority list given the pandemic.
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Joe Biden and the Democrats’ plan for wealth management regulation is becoming clearer as his inauguration date draws nearer. One big question on the industry’s mind is whether Biden will completely replace Reg BI with an entirely new package. According to former SEC lawyers, that seems highly unlikely. The reason why is that doing so would take an act of Congress, a high bar. Rather, what seems much more likely is that a new SEC chief is appointed an enforcement is tightened very considerably, with the emphasis moving to strict “by the letter” enforcement rather than principles-based enforcement.
FINSUM: This would be a big change. One of the aspects that really set the Trump administration era of enforcement apart was that it would focused on following rules in principle more so that “to the letter”. While this was not unique to wealth management, it was a definite change of pace that now seems likely to reverse.
As Biden takes the White House, all eyes in the wealth management industry are on regulations. Biden seems likely to take a much harder line on industry regulations than Trump did. The most focus is on the DOL, as the Biden team has made it clear that a “true” fiduciary rule is part of the agenda. No one quite knows if that will come from a tweaking of Reg BI or a restoration/update of the original DOL rule. One thing that has caught the attention of the industry is that Bernie Sanders appears a top candidate to take over the DOL, which could bring his unique approach, and almost certainly a new hardline fiduciary rule.
FINSUM: Bernie Sanders taking the helm at the DOL would be very ominous for wealth management. That said, one thing that has been clearly broadcast by the administration is that the DOL’s first agenda will be on healthcare (because of the pandemic) and secondly, it will be on raising the minimum wage to $15.
The stock market is going to enter a new era as Joe Biden—in all likelihood—becomes president. As that happens, investors need to start thinking about how to align their portfolios. While all industries will likely be affected to some extent, there are a handful that might be impacted the most acutely, such as energy, autos, tech, manufacturing, agriculture, banking, pharma and healthcare. In autos, Biden’s push for more efficiency will likely benefit Tesla and GM, both of whom are looking to sell more electric vehicles. Tech looks like a real risk area as the chances for more data/anti-trust regulation look higher, though those could be somewhat mitigated by a red Senate. On the manufacturing front, Biden is expected to use government stimulus to boost domestic manufacturing, In banking, executives are bracing for more regulation, but changes are not expected at a fast pace, so nothing too shocking seems likely in the near-term. Pharma looks vulnerable as Biden is committed to bringing drug prices down; that said even Pharma companies don’t expect that Democratic policies will hurt their margins worse than Trump’s proposals. In insurance and healthcare, the picture is mixed. Insurers would almost certainly be challenged by increasing amounts of government coverage, but hospitals would likely benefit from providing care for millions of newly insured Americans.
FINSUM: Biden and the Democrats’ plans will reverberate through the market in the coming months, though not as much as they might if the Left grabs control of the Senate in January. Generally, we agree with that a divided government would be most beneficial to markets.