(New York)

Okay, there is a trade war going on. But even still, industrial stocks look too cheap, at least according to Barron’s. The Industrial Select SPDR is up less than 2% this year, way behind the broader market because of fears the sector will get hammered by a trade war. Compounding that is the worry that the sector is past the peak of its cycle. However, the sector is still posting strong growth and good earnings. Stocks like Boeing and Caterpillar had big gains last year, but have weakened considerably recently. Recent earnings, though, were good, showing that core machinery sales continued the 15% annual growth they have been showing for several quarters. In seems the worst could be behind the sector.

FINSUM: It is too early to say whether the sector is out of the woods, but we would say that a 2% gain this year is not exactly what we would think of as the pre-condition for calling something very cheap.

(New York)

Pimco just made the most obvious warning we have ever heard, but within it, there are some useful reminders. They warned investors that there is a 70% likelihood of a global recession within the next five years. Their reasons for thinking so, and how to handle it, are a bit different than the norm however. Their focus is on how all central banks are in tightening mode and public market assets have become very expensive. Pimco says investors can find safe haven in private markets as the recession takes hold. These include in private credit, such as in corporate loans, non-qualified US mortgages, and commercial development loans. They say returns in those areas will be 10%+ instead of 5-6%.

FINSUM: We think their drivers are correct but their timing is off. We see a recession coming much sooner, probably within two years (at least for the US). However, the private credit recommendation is a unique one, but also hard for most investors to access.

(Washington)

Trump’s former attorney Michael Cohen pleaded guilty to charges of violating US election laws yesterday. Cohen admitted to making two payments as hush money to Stephanie Clifford and to the owner of the National Enquirer. Cohen also officially implicated the president, saying he was instructed to make the payments by Trump, which would also make Trump potentially culpable. Cohen took a plea deal with prosecutors and will receive between 46 and 63 months in prison. Lawyers say that the testimony puts Trump is hot legal water.

FINSUM: It is beyond us to say how legally troubling this may or may not be, but it is not going to help the president politically.

(Washington)

Bloomberg is reporting that the SEC is under a lot of pressure regarding its investigation of Tesla and Elon Musk. The SEC usually investigates companies without public knowledge, but Musk’s very public tweet changed their whole investigation (which has been going on for months), and they are now under pressure to punish the company or Musk personally. The investigation is now so public that the SEC would come under heaps of political criticism if it were to exonerate Musk.

FINSUM: The other question here is timing, as it can take years for the SEC to determine if laws were broken, but investors want an answer quickly.

(New York)

It looks like JP Morgan is trying to eat Schwab and Fidelity’s lunch, and the latter’s stock prices show it this week. The mega bank announced that it would offer free stock trading to its clients, allowing 100 free trades a year for most, and unlimited free trades for some. That is a huge change for a bank that formerly charged $24.95 per trade as late as last year. JP Morgan has 47 million online customers, who will now have free trading access. Reacting to the move, the VP of marketing for Interactive Brokers said “Banks and brokers that give away so-called free or cheap trades make their money by paying next to nothing on idle balances, executing trades at inferior prices, and charging exorbitant borrowing fees, which is costly to those that don't do their homework”.

FINSUM: That is a pretty sharp response from Interactive Brokers, and one that sounds true. Still, this is a sign of changing times where trading will soon become largely free.