(New York)

If one thing is apparent about the Fed, it is that Jerome Powell and his team are much more hawkish than Yellen or Bernanke. Therefore, it looks like rates are going to continue to rise (even in the face of a market protest, such as is occurring). With that in mind, investors need to find ways to hedge their portfolios or profit from rising rates. One area to look is at bank ETFs. Banks tend to do well as interest rates rise as the lift in rates boosts their net interest margins, a key source of revenue for the sector. Accordingly, take a look at the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) and the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE), both of which had been attracting capital. Additionally, see the First Trust Nasdaq Bank ETF (FTXO), Invesco KBW Bank ETF (KBWB), and the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE).

FINSUM: Banks stocks seem to be a good buy so long as we don’t get an inverted yield curve.

(Washington)

Markets are currently experiencing a great deal of volatility. The Nasdaq is in a correction and the Dow and S&P 500 have shed all their gains for the year. One of the big reasons why is investors’ fear of rising rates. With that in mind, many are hoping the central bank will save markets via the so-called “Fed put”, or the idea that if things get bad enough, the Fed will come in as a backstop with some sort of measure to boost asset prices. However, the truth is that Wall Street says we are not nearly deep enough into a correction/bear market for the Fed to take any sort of accommodative action.

FINSUM: Powell is much more hawkish than Yellen or Bernanke and we have no illusions that there is going to be any sort of supportive measure in the near term. We expect hikes to continue.

(Beijing)

Beijing made a big proclamation yesterday. The country is in the midst of a brutal bear market—its benchmark Shanghai Composite has fallen 27%—but yesterday the government made a big announcement. It said that it would do “whatever it takes” to stop its falling stock market. A large pledge of support came from Xi Jinping himself, which given his grip on power, means that it can likely be counted on. One analyst thinks the bear market might be nearing its end, saying “Bottoming is a process, and we’re starting to see some evidence of reversals and lows taking shape”.

FINSUM: The big x-factor for China is that a trade war and tariffs hurt them much worse than the West, so it is very hard for us to agree that the market rout there is ending.

(New York)

One of the biggest mistakes that investors might make in this rising rate era is to try to combat rising rates with better yielding bonds. While that strategy can work, especially in short-term bonds with high yields (such as junk bonds), a better strategy is to buy dividend growth stocks. Historically speaking, dividend growth shares have performed well in periods of rising rates, outperforming yield stocks and the broader market. BMO Capital Markets recently put out a piece on the topic, saying that “We prefer to focus on stocks that combine dividend growth and yield characteristics”. Some stocks that meet dividend growth criteria are BlackRock, Bank of America, Union Pacific, and Delta Airlines.

FINSUM: Dividend growth stocks tend to have good capital appreciation during periods of rising rates, which makes them seem like a good bet for this tightening cycle.

(New York)

Yesterday was a full-on panic in markets. Shares plunged across the board from a broad mix of worries about rates, earnings, the economy, and trade war. The Nasdaq was hit hardest, falling 4.4% into correction territory. Losses in the Dow and S&P 500 were enough to eliminate all gains for the year. Earnings have continued to be strong, but it has not helped support stocks much, if at all. The S&P 500 is now 9.4% off its 52-week high.

FINSUM: Our own view on stocks is that this will be a temporary hiccup and equities will steady themselves soon. Given that earnings growth is strong and the economy is still very healthy, it is hard to imagine a bear market starting.