Displaying items by tag: s&p
JPMorgan Chase & Co issued a statement for investors to remain bullish about global equities moving forward. They believe the largest sources of risk are hawkish central banks, slowing growth in China, and global covid restrictions, but most of these threats are already priced in. Even if they aren’t quite priced in the chances of them really materializing is minimal. They remain positive as benchmark indices remain at near all-time highs. This sentiment is shared by lots on Wallstreet, like Credit Suisse. Moreover, to best take advantage of this growth, they advise to overweight Euro stocks, financial, commodity miners, and automobile manufactures.
FINSUM: The bears haven’t stopped barking but equities remain high and P/E ratios aren’t crazy, there’s room to run.
ARK Innovation is one of the leading model portfolios and has become a household name in the last year, but it looks like the bubble has finally popped or at least deflated. Huge losses in big holders like Zoom, Teladoc Health, and Roku are down over 30% and the only thing keeping the fund floating has been a stellar Tesla performance. This has many investors worried about the broader market because equity prices are inflated. Furthermore, the gap between large-cap growth stocks and smaller caps is as wide as it has been since 2000. Maybe this means an equity bubble could pop, but it could just mean small caps have more value now than ever.
FINSUM: High P/E ratios should have investors cautious at the very least. If the Fed threatens to huff and puff anymore the whole house could come down!
Omicron is sweeping the U.S. and once again threatening to cripple the economy, already major airlines are canceling flights and potential Christmas plans. This makes moderate Dems walkout on the Build Back Better even more critical as the country could desperately be in need of stimulus at the moment. This caused Goldman to cut its GDP growth by 1% annualized in Q1 2022 and a half a percent in Q2. CPI rose at a 39-year record in November, which could make the possibility of a big BBB bill even less likely as price pressures deter policy makers. Goldman still sees the possibility that congress will aid a bit with the new omicron surging.
FINSUM: It’s tough to justify another trillion-dollar stimulus package with roaring inflation, and it might be futile with the Fed pumping the breaks; lookout for stagflation!
November was full of volatility, and that's more than leaked into December, but Goldman warned investors about buying the dip hoping for a post Christmas rally. The biggest two threats Goldman sees are ongoing, the new omicron Covid 19 variant and the newfound inflation hawkishness by the Fed. The bear wave has hit a variety of asset classes whether its tech or bitcoin, and their risk appetite is low. The street is mixed however as some indications of omicron is it won’t be severe and Fed actions haven’t taken hold just yet. The VIX is still above its short and longer run moving averages which should keep investors cautious.
FINSUM: There is really no reason to move drastically right now, the Fed will be more transparent in the next couple of months.
Markets were flummoxed early this week with the growing Omicron Covid-19 variant spreading rapidly in pockets globally. Despite these growing concerns and a seemingly endless pandemic, the JPMorgan is calling for a big 2022. With one of the absolute highest predictions on wall street JPMorgan is calling for a 5050 S&P 500 to end 2022. Easing supply chains, earrings growth and a more stable China are the key parts of their prediction for a successful equity market in 2022. Even if investors overweight China in their portfolios, the biggest threat will be domestically. A hawkish turn by the Fed would be detrimental to their prediction and is still the largest sort of risk in JPMorgans eyes.
FINSUM: Powell is talking tapering and rate rises just as Omicron is spreading which could be the perfect storm for a bad Q1 in 2022.