Displaying items by tag: pay
Ever on the search of new ways to think about the markets and innovative methods to predict them, we found new research from UBS which identifies a good new predictive indicator for single stock performance. That indicator is pay revolts. UBS ran an exhaustive study of 1,700 known pay revolts (when shareholders vote against executive compensation packages), and found that such companies were much more likely to suffer share price underperformance following the event. The average one-year underperformance after a pay revolt was 15%.
FINSUM: This is great info in its own right, but what makes it very timely is that Netflix lost a pay vote last year, as did Ameriprise and Xerox.
Morgan Stanley was due to make some big pay changes for advisors starting April 1st. The changes would mean a reduction in compensation for similar production levels. However, in light of the Coronavirus outbreak, the firm has said it is pushing the implementation date for the changes back to October 1st. Directly addressing the firms 15,000+ advisors, the head of field management said “We know that you are facing enormous challenges personally and professionally while at the same time taking great care of your clients in a very difficult environment”.
FINSUM: These changes are tough to begin with, and doing them right now would have been downright draconian (and might have caused some extra departures).
There is a big new risk to stocks to worry about, says Goldman Sachs. Actually, it is a not a new risk, it is an old one that investors have not been thinking about. The risk? Pay. The bank says that rising pay pressure from workers could hurt companies at all levels and eat into margins. The labor market is incredibly tight, which puts upward pressure on pay and downward pressure on corporate margins. Wage growth is already at its highest rate since 2007, and companies may feel the sting. According to Goldman, “While S&P 500 profit margins are at historical highs, survey data indicates a record level of corporate concern regarding labor costs”.
FINSUM: Many analysts have been predicting an earnings recession and this is one of the factors that could exacerbate it.
One of the most contested parts of the 2010 Dodd-Frank legislation was the legal mandate the act gave to regulators to create pay caps for Wall Street. The industry has fought tooth and nail to block their imposition, successfully curbing any changes for nine years. The last major push to cap pay was in 2016, but nothing has happened since then. Now a consortium of regulators, including the Fed, FDIC, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and Federal Reserve are coming together to create new rules. The most likely target are high ranking executives, but talks in the past have extended to rank and file employees.
FINSUM: Caps for top executives will be anathema to some, but restrictions for regular employees are a whole other issue that will cause a major uproar.
The life of an advisor at a wirehouse is certainly changing. In the new broker-protocol-collapsed world, things have become different. At UBS, the changes are very clear—advisors are being paid more, but it is harder to leave. The average broker for UBS earned about $471,000 in 2017 (skewed by big earners), up 13% over 2016. However, at the same time, the firm dropped out of the broker protocol, making it harder for advisors to breakaway. UBS spent 7% less on new broker recruiting last year.
FINSUM: A 13% pay bump is a pretty strong number, but it could likely be much higher if one were to go out on their own.