Displaying items by tag: europe

Global stocks are anticipated to recover from recent market turmoil and gain modestly in the coming months, driven by expectations of forthcoming interest rate cuts by major central banks, according to a Reuters poll of over 150 equity strategists.

Despite a sharp decline in early August due to the unwinding of leveraged positions and weaker U.S. jobs data, the MSCI global index has regained most of its losses, now up 14% for the year. Analysts expect corporate earnings to outperform in local markets, supporting further growth in key equity indices, though at a slower pace compared to last year. 

While 13 of 15 major indices are forecasted to post single-digit gains by year-end, with no outright global correction anticipated, the pace of gains in 2024 is expected to moderate, reflecting a tempered outlook amidst a resilient macroeconomic picture.

Finsum: We’ll monitor how exchange rates fluctuate as inflation normalizes across countries. 

Investors are increasingly drawn to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for passive income and capital growth, with demand surging recently. By June, European ETFs surpassed $2 trillion in assets under management, with a notable 88% year-on-year increase in funds raised.

Two notable ETFs for passive income are the iShares Euro Dividend UCITS ETF, which offers a 6% yield, and the L&G Quality Equity Dividends ESG Exclusions UK UCITS ETF, with a 4.6% yield. Both funds provide solid dividend income and diversification, though they have their own risks, including economic downturns in their respective regions.

ETFs offer significant advantages, such as risk management through diversification across various assets, including stocks, bonds, and commodities. While individual stocks might yield higher returns, ETFs can still be highly profitable over time.

Finsum: Now might be an important time to diversify to the UK with elections and interest rate volatility shocking U.S. and Asian markets. 

Blackstone aims to expand its European private credit fund, ECRED, by doubling its size within the next year, having already secured €1bn from affluent European investors. Launched in 2022, ECRED strives to match the success of Blackstone's $54bn US fund, BCRED. 

This move aligns with similar initiatives from Goldman Sachs, CVC, and Ares, reflecting a rising interest in private credit investments across Europe. Initially facing regulatory hurdles and cautious investors, Blackstone is now focused on expanding its market reach and adding more distributors. 

ECRED, which invests primarily in private credit assets with a portion in liquid assets, seeks to leverage the thriving $1.7tn market for private corporate loans.

Finsum: Private Credit offers the ability to capture yield in uncorrelated markets and could be helpful for those seeking alternative returns. 

Demand for US Treasuries continues to be strong despite high levels of issuance. According to the Treasury Department, foreign holdings of Treasuries saw their fifth monthly increase, reaching new highs.

As of the end of February, foreigners held $7.97 trillion of US Treasuries, nearly 9% higher than February 2023. Japan is the largest holder of Treasuries, outside of the US, at $1.17 trillion, which is the most since August 2022. 

However, some believe that the country may be looking to boost the value of its currency, as it hit a 34-year low against the dollar earlier this week. In 2022, Japan intervened in currency markets by selling dollars and buying the yen when it was at similar levels. As a result, its holdings declined by $131.6 billion due to these transactions. 

Another trend is that China’s holding of Treasuries continues to decline. The country held $775 billion in Treasuries, a decline of $22.7 billion from the previous month. This is the lowest amount since March 2009. 

Europe saw the biggest monthly increase of $27 billion and owns $320 billion in total. Great Britain also saw a $9 billion increase in Treasury holdings to reach $701 billion. 

Finsum: Despite recent volatility in US Treasuries, foreign holdings continue to rise. Japan remains the largest owner of Treasuries, while China continues to reduce its stake.

Blackrock remains the heavyweight when it comes to the ETF market in terms of total assets and issues, but rivals are catching up. As of November of last year, Blackrock managed 32% of total assets in the US ETF market, a slight drop from 33.7% at the same time last year. This figure was at 39% just 4 years ago. 

Blackrock’s major rival in ETFs is Vanguard. While Blackrock has ETFs for nearly every category, Vanguard is focused on fixed income and equities while sticking to its reputation for low costs and diversification. Recent flows into ETFs have favored cheap index funds which is one factor in Vanguard taking some market share. Vanguard has seen its market share rise from 25% to 29% over the last 4 years. 

The story is different in Europe, where Blackrock retains its dominance. As of November 2023, the firm had 44% of total ETF assets, and this figure was unchanged over the last 5 years despite the European ETF market more than doubling. Overall, Blackrock has $9.1 trillion in assets and is expected to have net inflows of over $250 billion. 

Blackrock has the benefits of a first-move advantage in Europe and has developed relationships with institutions. In Europe, investing continues to be driven by institutions rather than retail traders. 

Finsum: Blackrock remains the clear, global leader in ETFs. However, Vanguard is catching up especially in the US, where its index funds are seeing rapid growth.