Displaying items by tag: active etfs

Active fixed income has underperformed for the last 4 quarters due to the sharp increase in rates and tightening of spreads. However, the asset class could be poised to outperform as the Fed pauses and offers the best way for investors to take advantage of higher yields according to Sage Advisors Chief Investment Officer Rob Williams. 

Williams sees the Fed’s current rate path as being data dependent. This period could last for several quarters and offers specific advantages for active fixed income given its ability to tap a wider variety of duration, sectors, and risk to generate alpha. 

Eventually, Williams sees the yield curve steepening as the Fed inevitably shifts from ‘pausing’ to cutting. This process is likely to be volatile given the underlying resilience of the economy and labor market, and active fixed income tends to outperform in volatile markets.  

Active managers also have the ability to identify value in the fixed income space to improve return and risk factors. Due to volatility compressing in 2023, spreads have also tightened as well. This means that security selection has a more meaningful impact on returns and risk. 

Finsum: Active fixed income offers specific advantages to investors that are especially relevant if the Fed is pausing rate hikes and remaining ‘data-dependent’. 

A major theme of 2023 has been the constant compression in volatility. In fact, the volatility index (VIX) is now lower than when the bear market began in January of 2022 despite the S&P 500 being about 10% below its all-time highs.

However, the consensus continues to be that these conditions won’t persist for too long. The longer that rates remain elevated at these lofty levels, the higher the odds that something breaks, causing a cascade of issues that will lead to a spike in volatility and a probable recession. According to Vanguard, a shallow recession remains likely to occur sometime early next year. 

For fixed income, it will certainly be challenging. So far this year, the asset class has eked out a small gain despite rates trending higher due to credit spreads tightening and low default rates. However, more volatility is likely if rates keep moving higher which would likely lead to selling pressure or if inflation does cool which would result in the Fed loosening policy, creating a generous tailwind for the asset class.

Given this challenging environment, active fixed income is likely to outperform passive fixed income as managers have greater discretion to invest in the short-end of the curve to take advantage of higher yields while being insulated from uncertainty. Additionally, these managers can find opportunities in more obscure parts of the market in terms of duration or credit quality. 

Finsum: Fixed income has eked out a small gain this year. But, the environment is likely to get even more challenging which is why active fixed income is likely to generate better returns than passive fixed income.

In a strategy note, Scott Solomon and Quentin Fitzsimmons, the portfolio managers of the Dynamic Global Bond Fund, discuss why active fixed income is the best asset class for the current market environment. Despite recent economic data which indicates that inflation and the economy are both more resilient than previously expected, the pair believe that we are in the midst of a shift from one monetary regime to another.

However, they acknowledge that this is not going to be a smooth process. In fact, they expect a bumpy process especially given investor positioning. But, this uncertainty is what they believe will create opportunities in terms of credit quality and duration. Of course, such opportunities can be taken advantage of better by active fixed income managers rather than passive funds which are tracking benchmarks and unable to invest in securities of varying quality and duration.

Soloman and Fitzsimmons see a new ‘normal’ and expect rates to be structurally higher over the next couple of decades given high levels of debt to GDP in developed countries all over the world. Additionally, they anticipate that the negative correlation between stocks and bonds which prevailed in the years between the 2008 financial crisis and the pandemic is unlikely to return as long as central banks are not actively supporting markets. 

Finsum: Scott Solomon and Quentin Fitzsimmons of T. Rowe Price’s Dynamic Global Bond Fund shared their thinking about why they expect active fixed income to offer the best opportunities in the coming years.

In 2022, active ETFs accounted for 15% of total global inflows into ETFs. In 2023, active ETFs now account for 25% of total inflows. 

Is this a temporary blip due to the current environment of economic uncertainty and high rates and inflation? Or, is this a new trend that we should expect to continue for the foreseeable future.

In a recent report, State Street supports the latter argument. The asset manager sees recent regulatory reform as a major catalyst for growth in the active sector. Rule 6c-11 modernized the process to launch ETF, shortening the runway from many years to 60 days. This has resulted in an explosion of ETF offerings. In the last 3 years, 750 active ETFs have been created, while only 325 were created in the 11 years prior to Rule 6c-11. 

Another regulatory change is that ETF providers are able to be slightly less transparent with their holdings. This has led many managers to launch their own ETFs who were previously concerned about giving their best ideas for free. And, it’s also led many mutual funds to also offer active ETFs with similar strategies. 

It’s particularly bullish on active fixed income ETFs as it sees more room for innovation in the space. And, it notes that many advisors and institutions are just becoming familiar with the asset class.

Finsum: Active fixed income and equity ETFs are seeing incredible growth over the last couple of years due to a combination of regulatory changes and innovation. 

At the VettaFi Fixed Income Symposium, Todd Rosenbluth hosted a conversation between Stephen Laipply, the global co-head of iShares fixed income ETFs and Anmol Sinha, fixed income investment director at Capital Group. The conversation spanned a wide array of topics regarding the advantages of investing in fixed-income through ETFs.

Both also spoke of the recent growth in active fixed income ETF offerings, and why they are bullish on the category going forward. However, they rejected the binary of being an active or a passive investor and instead see a role for both strategies in a portfolio.

Active fixed income ETFs allow investors and advisors to better achieve specific goals such as exposure to a certain segment of the market or take advantage of market inefficiencies. Both are in favor of pairing an active ETF with a passive one to achieve ‘total portfolio exposure’. 

Fixed income ETFs are outpacing equity ETFs in terms of inflows over the last couple of years due to yields at their highest level in decades and a shaky economic outlook. Within the fixed income ETF universe, active strategies are seeing the most growth as they have outperformed amid recent volatility and advisors and wealth managers are becoming increasingly comfortable with the asset class.

Finsum: At the Vettafi Symposium, there was a discussion centered around fixed income ETFs and their future outlook. Regarding active vs passive ETFs, there was agreement that both are complementary rather than competing.