Displaying items by tag: Apple
No matter how good you may feel about stock indexes being back near all-time highs, one fact cannot be ignored: the market seems to be heavily overweight on the five largest tech stocks— Microsoft, Facebook, Google, Apple, and Amazon (the new acronym, named by Goldman is FAAMG). These stocks have been powering the market, but the whole situation feels like past peaks where their outperformance could not go on forever. Concentration in the S&P 500 is now at its highest in decades, with those five names accounting for 22% of the total capitalization, up from just 16% a year ago. According to Barron’s “Simple arithmetic limits the continued outperformance of the biggest names, the Goldman team observes, because many portfolio managers have 5% limits on holdings of any given stock. The strategists’ analysis shows that the average large-cap mutual fund already has a 5% position in Microsoft and about 4% positions in the other big four names.”.
FINSUM: It seems these stocks are reaching their institutional allocation limits, which mans retail needs to power them higher. The whole situation feels ripe for a correction.
Apple just debuted a new phone model and they appear to have made a very wise decision. The company unveiled its new version of the iPhone SE, its lowest end model of the iPhone, for just $399, the same price as the original SE model in 2016. However, this phone is significantly beefed up, and Apple says its Bionic Chip is the “fastest chip in a smartphone”. The pricing, of course, comes at a time of major economic hardship for most Americans.
FINSUM: This is a wise play both from a revenue generation standpoint and a branding standpoint. It would be hard for most of the US to justify a $1,000+ upgrade right now.
Investors have made cash the only thing that matters in markets. The Dollar is surging and investors are fleeing assets in favor of cash. Cash is a scarce and valuable asset in this downturn, and which companies have a ton of it—tech companies. While the Silicon Valley giants will take a hit from lower consumer spending, the reality is that the shutdown of normal life is pushing things ever more online—their domain. As this crisis eventually abates, giants like Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, have huge cash reserves (currently $350 bn) that will help them attract shareholder capital, and also grab market share as competition gets weeded out.
FINSUM: Tech is probably going to be in a stronger position in a year than it was six weeks ago. Their fortress balance sheets will be key.
Apple has been deeply wounded by the coronavirus panic. The stock fell as much as 16.5% through the weekend before good gains on Monday. The reality is that this is great time to buy Apple, as shares are offering a big discount just before the next iPhone super cycle begins. According to Wedbush, a leading Apple analyst (and referencing the coronavirus sell-off), “we believe this will be short lived as the longer term 5G super cycle thesis and services re-rating remain the crux of our bull thesis on Apple for the next 12 to 18 months.” Wedbush believes that some 350m of the nearly one billion iPhones out there are “in a window of an upgrade opportunity”.
FINSUM: Apple has a good shot at selling over 200m iPhones in the 12 months starting September 2020, likely breaking its highest sales ever. This is a good time to get ahead of that.
Apple’s stock has suffered significantly last week since it announced that it would likely miss its revenue targets because of the virus outbreak in China. The stock is down 7% since the announcement and there is increasing speculation the damage may not be transient. The whole incident calls into question whether the country is too reliant on China for production (and also for sales). Many Wall Street analysts have pushed lost revenue for this quarter into other quarters, but it is not at all inconceivable to think that some of the sales may be lost permanently as consumers could have bought rival products, or just won’t switch at all (especially those in China).
FINSUM: Apple should probably work to adjust its supply chain as a reaction to this, but that seems unlikely. Hard to tell how this plays out; it depends on the news cycle.