Displaying items by tag: Apple

Tuesday, 10 September 2019 12:38

Apple May Be Headed for a Meltdown

(San Francisco)

The headline looks a little bearish, granted, but it honestly may be true. The stars seem to be aligning for some big price losses in Apple’ stock. The company is set to unveil the iPhone 11 today, and it is hard to remember a time when there has been less excitement. For many reasons, including this being Apple’s last 4G phone, this model year looks to be a dud, and customer demand for it looks commensurately weak. Accordingly, the replacement cycle is likely to be poor. However, market expectations don’t seem to reflect all this, which means the stock is set up for big disappointment. Even Wall Street equity research divisions are now significantly lowering price targets for the stock.


FINSUM: The smartphone market is growing increasingly commoditized and dull and it is affecting Apple too. The company has done an admirable job diversifying, but 2020 is looking bleak for Apple.

Published in Eq: Tech
Tuesday, 04 June 2019 08:32

Tech Slides as Anti-trust Probe Starts

(San Francisco)

All of the last year’s fear of anti-trust regulation seem to be coming true. Tech shares dropped yesterday on news that top US regulators had divvied up jurisdiction of tech giants for a forthcoming probe. The Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission, the agencies in charge of anti-trust, have decided who will manage what as they prepare to launch an anti-trust probe into Facebook, Amazon, Google, and Apple. It is still unclear exactly what will be investigated, as well as the scope of the probe. After the market closed, the US House of Representatives also announced its own investigation. The tumble in shares sent Google into a bear market.


FINSUM: This has been looming for some time, but now looks like a reality. This could be the start of some very serious volatility and changes for the FANGs.

Published in Eq: Tech
Friday, 31 May 2019 10:34

Apple Headed for Big Trouble in Trade War

(San Francisco)

We ran a piece yesterday highlighting the risk of China using rare earth elements as a bargaining chip in the trade war. The US currently gets 80% of its rare earths from China, and the elements are used in everything from smartphones, glass, electric vehicles, and jet engines. The biggest loser if China blocks access could be Apple. The company is currently planning a ramp up in production for its new fall products, so according to Goldman Sachs “even a short term action affecting production could have longer term consequences for the company.”


FINSUM: It is hard to calculate the financial impact at this point, but we expect it could be significant given that these elements are key to smartphone production.

Published in Eq: Tech

(San Francisco)

One of the trade war’s big victims could be Apple. While much of the trade war panic has been focused on other products, Apple could be the biggest victim to suffer. The the reason why may have more to do with sentiment than with tariffs. While there is much talk of Chinese “national champions”, Apple is undoubtedly an American national champion in China, and with sentiment souring against the US in the face of the trade war, it is likely that Chinese consumers will move towards purchasing domestic smart phones. Apple will be forced to raise prices because of tariffs, which would accelerate the trade. China accounts for about 18% of Apple’s revenue and a higher percentage of its profits.


FINSUM: There could be a big hit to Apple’s top and bottom lines here. China could also take measures to specifically wound Apple the way Washington has done to Huawei. Anything seems to be fair game right now.

Published in Eq: Tech
Thursday, 02 May 2019 13:39

How to Predict Apple’s Stock Price

(San Francisco)

Want to forecast at where Apple’s stock price is headed? There is a good trick for doing so. The method is to look at the earnings and share price moves of Apple’s suppliers. About a third of suppliers report earnings before Apple does, and many of them derive a high portion of their sales from the company. Therefore, one can fairly well predict Apple’s earnings and likely moves. For instance, Apple has been on a tear since its earnings on Tuesday, and it would have been easy to see from the previously released supplier earnings.


FINSUM: This will not always work and some of the value is probably eaten up by algorithmic traders, but still, it seems a good predictive indicator.

Published in Eq: Tech
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