(New York)

If you are a gold bull, this has been a really rough period. While gold has been weakening for years (relative to the market), the last several weeks has been particularly concerning. Despite all the turmoil in global markets that has come alongside Turkey’s financial crisis, gold just hit its weakest level since March 2017. Further, despite many panics in markets this year, gold has fallen 9% and has not gained from its reputation as a safe haven. The rising strength of the US Dollar has not helped gold’s prospects.

FINSUM: Gold is down to around $1,200 an ounce despite all that has happened this year. If the bear market had not been going on so long, it would almost seem like a buying opportunity, but rising rates and a rising Dollar are strong headwinds even if fundamentals changed.

(New York)

Elon musk’s tweet last week about planning to take Tesla private was met with much excitement, but also much incredulity. Many seemed to think the idea was just a pie in the sky plan with little chance of actually coming to fruition. However, the plan seems to be moving forward as Musk announced yesterday that he has hired Goldman Sachs and Silver Lake to advise the deal. Musk is apparently also working with the Saudi Arabian sovereign wealth fund to get the capital necessary to buyout the company, but is also seeking outside investors as well.

FINSUM: As the plan looks more and more concrete, the stock keeps rising towards the announced $420 buyout price.

(New York)

Since their low in 2017, retail stocks have been on a great run, rising about 35%. The question for investors is where the market goes from here. After easily outpacing the market, retail could face some headwinds, though analysts are still generally positive. Some say cost pressures are rising quickly and will hurt earnings, while others say such assumptions are overstated and that earnings should be fine.

FINSUM: Rising consumer confidence has really helped lift the sector out of its doldrums, but any economic peak could also prove the high point for retail. If you think this cycle has already peaked, then retail would seem vulnerable.

(New York)

There are a lot of bear market and recession indicators to make an investor nervous right now. There are also a wealth pf positive points. However, one area that really caught our eye was an industrial commodity that says a lot about the direction of the economy. Copper is in the middle of a big fall, and according to the Financial Times, the metal “is telling us not to worry a bit: the metal is telling us to panic”. Copper is down about 18% this year, and most of that fall is since May. Copper is used in a wide range of industrial applications across all regions in the world, it is utterly ubiquitous, so demand for it is a good leading indicator of economic performance.

FINSUM: This seems like a worrying sign, but we must say that some of the loss could be because of the trade war with China. That said, the sharp drop in prices is a very worrying sign.

(New York)

One of the big worries in the market right now regards the idea of peak earnings. The market has been doing quite well, all underpinned by seemingly super-powered earnings. However, many see this quarter or next as the peak of the earnings boom, with the benefits of the new tax package starting to wane from here. “How will markets respond?”, many wonder. According to Barron’s, “just fine” is the answer. Historically speaking, the peak of earnings had little do with market peaks, so the two seem to have no clear correlation. In other words, there is no historical precedent that should make one worry.

FINSUM: Part of the reason this is so worrying is that the bull market is so old that people are constantly looking for something new to power it. In that regard, peak earnings do seem concerning.