(Washington)

Most investors spend their time worrying the Fed is going to cut the party short. Historically speaking, that has often been the role of the central bank—keeping things from getting too out of hand. However, Fed chief Powell does not appear to want to be the sober chaperone at the party this year, as the dovish positioning is heavy. Accordingly, there seems to be a strong chance of a melt up in stocks right now, or a big late stage rally. UBS, however, says the opposite, arguing that investors will stay hesitant because of high valuations and weak earnings.

FINSUM: We don’t think there will be a melt up. We just think the market will re-enter the post-Crisis goldilocks mode they were in, where rates are low and the economy is healthy, clearing the way for multiple expansion.

(San Francisco)

A year ago you were a considered a maniac if you didn’t have your portfolio loaded with FAANGs and other tech stocks. What a difference a year makes! Tech stocks are now largely out of favor after a rough year that has underperformed the S&P. There are a lot of fears of regulatory scrutiny and slowing financial performance. The tide has turned so much against the stocks that it is fair to call them a contrarian bet.

FINSUM: It sounds quite ridiculous to call some of the world’s most popular stocks over the last few years “contrarian”, but it seems true at this point. It appears it might be a good time to buy, though regulatory fears may prove legitimate.

(Washington)

Have you been concerned about the newest iteration of the DOL’s Fiduciary Rule, which is due out by the end of this year? You should have been. While investors have been anxious about it, the generally more industry-friendly DOL under Trump has alleviated some anxieties. However, some thing very big just happened—DOL chief Acosta has resigned (amidst the Jeffrey Epstein scandal). That means there is likely to be a significant review and change of priorities as new leadership comes in. That leaves the fate and direction of the DOL very uncertain.

FINSUM: This is not necessarily good news. One could get giddy and think the Fiduciary Rule might no longer be a priority, but there is an equal chance the next head of the department may come in and say “this isn’t tough enough”.

(New York)

On the one hand the market looks very healthy (new all-time highs every day), but if you look more deeply there are some signs of dysfunction that appear as though they may spill out into the biggest indexes. Demand for risk assets looks quite weak. Consider for instance that the Russell 2000 is hurting even as large caps rise. Similarly, junk bonds are not doing well despite the seeming risk-on environment. Both of those developments show that liquidity is lacking. “Small caps are more sensitive to liquidity issues, both good and bad”, says a market strategist.

FINSUM: The weakness is small caps and junk bonds shows that more investors are sitting on the sidelines right now, but that does not necessarily mean trouble more broadly.

(New York)

Gold is having a good year, up almost 10% after a very long bear market. But where might it be headed now that the Fed is likely going to start a cutting cycle? The answer is probably significantly higher. The macro backdrop is perfect for gold—geopolitical tensions are high, there are worries over the domestic and global economy, the Fed is going to be cutting (lower rates are better for zero-yielding gold), and the Dollar is likely to weaken, making gold cheaper for overseas buyers.

FINSUM: We agree all the ingredients are there, but if the Fed starts cutting, it may alleviate a lot of worries about the economy and make risk assets look more favorable.