Stocks may do well after the midterm elections, but Barron’s is arguing that rise will be preceded by a fall in share pricing leading into the elections. The contention is based on two arguments which rely on historical trends for the market. One is that markets do well in the third year of a presidential cycle, and the other is that stocks tend to do poorly in the summer. All of that points to a market that is likely to start rallying in the Autumn, specifically November 1st, says Barron’s.
FINSUM: While Barron’s does point it out, it is very worthwhile to bear in mind that these types of calls are only as good as the actual catalysts one sees that could really drive them. In this case, the uncertainty over how the Republican party will fair in the midterms may be a key factor.
Fake news has become an important part of the American conversation. People discuss it at work, dinner parties, and at the kitchen table. But one fiercely contested question is whether the right or left side of the political spectrum puts out more fake news. Well, the British seem to have an answer, it is the right, according to the University of Oxford. The university analyzed near 100,000 social media posts to trace the source of fake news, and found that what it calls the “hard right” dominates the use of disinformation.
FINSUM: Obviously take this with a big grain of salt, but an interesting study nonetheless.
The midterm elections are currently dominated by two incompatible assumptions. Democrats think Trump’s low approval rating and the rash of Republican congressional retirements will lead to a big string of victories for their party. Republicans hope that growing economic confidence, underpinned by the White House’s policies, will win out. The big X-factor is now the stock market, which has been gutted over the last few days, a fact which could rattle the economic confidence of Americans. Democrats need 24 seats in the House to take back a majority. Many suspect they will win 30.
FINSUM: Trump and the Republican party are up against history (the party of the President typically does poorly in midterms), and now possibly the markets and economy.
This week’s news has been rife with articles on President Trump and his apparent push to try to firm special counsel Mueller over the summer. Now Bloomberg has put out an article commenting on the implication of such an effort (if it is true). In a balanced view, Bloomberg says that such behavior, even if true, would not add to any obstruction of justice case against Trump, and that any problems it would cause would be on the political side, not the legal one.
FINSUM: To be honest, we are perplexed by the firestorm over this. Trump did not have Mueller fired. Simply looking into it, even if true, doesn’t seem to constitute anything.
There is no doubt about it, the midterm elections of this year are going to be an enormous challenge for the Republican party. As the election in Alabama last month showed, the tide has swung politically, and many Republicans looking at reelection are facing tough campaigns or have resigned rather than run and lose. Examples of the challenge abound, such as Republican congressman Frelinghuysen from New Jersey, who is facing his first real test in 23 years. History also doesn’t suggest a favorable result, as the midterm election often acts as a referendum on the White House. Democrats got beaten in the midterms after both Clinton and Obama’s elections.
FINSUM: With Trump’s approval rating quite low, it does seem like a lot of the public might retaliate against the party by voting against their GOP congressional candidates.