Elizabeth Warren is currently the only candidate that is really rising in the polls, and that is terrifying Wall Street. The far-left candidate has the most comprehensive plans to change the status quo of the financial system and she is gaining traction with voters. That is making Wall Street very nervous. Famed investor Leon Cooperman said he expected a year-plus long bear market with losses of 25% or more if either Sanders or Warren wins the election. Biden currently still leads Warren, but the gap is close, with his advantage down to 31% to 25% of Democratic voters.
FINSUM: Our own feeling on this is that Warren may have the momentum to win the bid, but that it will likely prove quite hard for her to win the general election, as her policies are very progressive for middle-of-the-road voters.
Whichever side of the political aisle you are on, the new polls coming out about the 2020 presidential election look misleading. A new Gallup poll released this week showed that Biden has a 54% to 38% lead over Trump. Furthermore, the poll found that any of the 5 top Democratic contenders would beat Trump in the election were they to win the bid. Additionally, 37% of voters reported that they felt the economy was worsening versus 31% who said it was improving, the first time recently that Americans have been pessimistic about the economic outlook.
FINSUM: The polls don’t seem to be doing justice to how close this election feels. They just don’t reconcile for us. That said, the numbers on economic sentiment are quite interesting.
It has been a bad week for President Trump and his reelection chances appear to have taken a hit, argues Bloomberg. The reason is that the events of the last week have hurt him in three key areas: suburban voters, rural voters, and industrial states. The massacres of the last week, and Trump’s reluctance to push tougher gun laws, will likely harm him in critical suburban areas, where Democrats have been taking votes. Additionally, on the trade war front, both rural voters and industrial states are likely to be upset at recent developments, which could wound the President further.
FINSUM: We think polls still aren’t doing justice to Trump’s chances, but we have to agree that the last week has not done him any favors.
The first round of the second Democratic debate occurred last night, and it was full of fireworks. Candidates ramped up their attacks on one another, with most of the aggressiveness directed at Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren for their Medicare for All bills that would create an entirely government-run healthcare system. Other candidates criticized the plan as “fairy tale economics”.
FINSUM: We again think that the debate last night showed why Republicans are most likely to win this election—many in the party recognize the need to play more toward the middle to win the race.
The 2020 presidential election is still about a year and half away, yet a large number of investors have already made changes to their portfolios based on potential outcomes. Some 40% of investors say they have adjusted their portfolios because of the upcoming election, according to a recent survey. The reality is that investors are worried about a Democratic sweep of the presidency, House, and Senate, which could mean a serious rollback of Trump-era policies, including tax cuts. “If Biden continues to poll this well into the beginning of next year ahead of the primaries, he is gonna start to have some negative effect on the market”, says Tony Roth of Wilmington Trust.
FINSUM: We can’t help but agree with that last assessment. That said, we think negative effects will be slow and steady, not sharp moves.