Displaying items by tag: loans

(Washington)

A lot of financial advisors are small business owners, and thousands of them are likely looking for the government’s Payment Protection Program assistance right now. As anyone involved in applying for the program knows, things have been very frustrating and uncertain, with that stress exacerbated by the fact that it is a first come-first serve program. However, there is some potential good news on the horizon. The White House and Senate leader Mitch McConnell are trying to get another $250 bn of loans approved by Congress, which would add to the $349 bn that is already being deployed (apparently it is already being deployed).

FINSUM: It appears as though demand is exceeding supply, so this additional funding is likely to be very necessary.

(New York)

One of the ways that wirehouses have been trying to make their brokers (and their brokers’ clients) more sticky is by pushing loans. Brokers are encouraged to get clients to borrow money. These loans have the effect of binding clients to firms for long periods, and correspondingly, it makes it harder for brokers to breakaway because clients are more likely to stay put. However, some RIAs are combatting the trend by offering to replace client loans during the transition period when brokers are joining their firms. Perhaps even more interestingly, custodians are getting into the game too, with Schwab announcing recently that they would be increasing lending products available to advisors to help them transition clients away from wirehouses. The loans provided often have lower interest rates than what the wires offer, so the success rate in migrating clients has been quite high.

FINSUM: The loan game has been the domain of the wirehouses for years, but with the big custodians getting involved, this is another important structure that will make breaking away easier.

(New York)

If rising rates weren’t scaring you a week ago, they surely are now, as the weight of rate rises has finally hit markets in a big way. With that said, here are some ETFs to help offset or benefit from rate hikes. Vanguard’s Short-Term Bond ETF (BSV) is a good bet, with an expense ratio of just 0.07% and a yield of about 3%. Another interesting one is the Invesco Senior Loan ETF (BKLN). The loans underlying this fund have their yields reset every 30 to 90 days, so your payout keeps rising with the market. The fund yields 4.19% and costs 0.65%. Lastly, take a look at the Fidelity’s Dividend ETF for Rising Rates (FDRR), which focuses on dividend growth stocks, a group that has historically performed well during periods of rising rates.

FINSUM: This a nice group of options, all of which are quite different from each other.

(New York)

Pimco just made the most obvious warning we have ever heard, but within it, there are some useful reminders. They warned investors that there is a 70% likelihood of a global recession within the next five years. Their reasons for thinking so, and how to handle it, are a bit different than the norm however. Their focus is on how all central banks are in tightening mode and public market assets have become very expensive. Pimco says investors can find safe haven in private markets as the recession takes hold. These include in private credit, such as in corporate loans, non-qualified US mortgages, and commercial development loans. They say returns in those areas will be 10%+ instead of 5-6%.

FINSUM: We think their drivers are correct but their timing is off. We see a recession coming much sooner, probably within two years (at least for the US). However, the private credit recommendation is a unique one, but also hard for most investors to access.

(New York)

The last two weeks could hardly have been worse for investors. Stocks plunged and bonds are falling, with the former led by obsession over the VIX. However, according to Bloomberg there is a ticket timing much bigger than the VIX, and one you probably aren’t paying much attention too—ETF loan funds. The market is much bigger than the $8 bn of volatility linked ETFs that got wiped out over the last couple of weeks, try $156 billion between loan ETFs and mutual funds. The big worry is that since these kind of illiquid underlying investments—actual loans—cannot be sold so quickly as the ETFs, that it could cause huge losses as ETFs stampede out but fund managers cannot liquidate the underlying quickly enough.

FINSUM: So this is a provocative spin on a common argument. Our counter, however, is that credit worthiness is pretty good overall, so it doesn’t seem like an exodus will occur.