(New York)

Investors are currently afraid of the turmoil in the Middle East. The US killing of Iran’s military leader has greatly stoked tensions, and markets are worried about a war breaking out in the Middle East. Since there have been many geopolitical issues in the region in recent history, there are a lot of examples of how markets have reacted. Suntrust bank analysts summarize how the market usually reacts, saying “While it is not unusual to see short-term weakness, these geopolitical events tend to have a transitory market impact … For example, when looking at a sample of geopolitical/military events, the S&P 500 was higher 12 months later in nine of the 12 events we reviewed. The three instances where stocks were down a year later coincided with a recession”.

FINSUM: If a full on war does not happen, we expect the effects will be transitory. The other non-military issue that could cause a problem is a big supply shortage in oil.

(New York)

In a move that seems highly in contrast to its nature (or at least its “old” nature), Goldman Sachs is changing the way it reports its earnings as part of an effort to be more transparent. The bank is not doing this because of some general high-mindedness, but rather so that investors can better grasp the progress it is making in its various divisions, including in consumer finance. That area includes its new consumer savings and online lending unit—Marcus—as well as its new credit card venture with Apple.

FINSUM: This seems like a smart play and we could see this as a catalyst for Goldman to break out of its long-term stock stagnation.

(New York)

All the worries about the economy seem so 2019 now, right? Wrong. A big new warning sign just came out of that all important sector that we love to worry about—manufacturing. New data shows the US manufacturing sector is in its worst shape since 2009, according to the ISM. The sector only accounts for 10% of the economy, but it has been suffering mightily as Trump has ratcheted up the trade war.

FINSUM: So the question is whether this weakness is just because of the trade war or whether it signals something more broad. We think it is primarily trade-driven. As a consolation, garbage stocks have usually done very well when manufacturing is weak, according to Barron’s.

(Seattle)

Yes, Amazon looks expensive and has seen massive gains in recent years. This makes many fearful of the stock. But the reality is that the stock is a free cash flow rocket ship that is going to keep surging higher, according to 47 of the 49 Wall Street analysts who cover it. Amazon trades for 69x 2020 earnings, but it still looks pretty inexpensive on a free cash flow basis. The company’s past growth initiatives are now paying off, which means Amazon is throwing off free cash flow in a big way.

FINSUM: Amazon has averaged a 35% gain per year since it went public. We don’t see any big reasons why it cannot continue this year.

(New York)

There have been two huge beneficiaries of the increased tensions with Iran in recent days: oil and gold. The shiny metal is now at its highest level since 2013 at almost $1,600 per ounce. The difference between the two is that gold seems likelier to stay elevated. Goldman Sachs argues oil would actually need a physical disruption to supply in order to stay elevated, while historically gold is likely to keep rising. According to the bank, “In contrast, history shows that under most outcomes gold will probably rally to well beyond current levels”, says Goldman’s head of commodities research.

FINSUM: Gold certainly has a longer runway than oil for staying high as its rise in prices has nothing to do with a possible supply disruption, which means one doesn’t need to materialize in order for prices to keep moving higher.