(New York)

Goldman Sachs has been leading Wall Street in its bullish outlook for 2021. The bank has been forecasting 6.6% GDP growth, a full 2.5% above the consensus forecast. However, the bank just published a note which represents the first backtrack on that call. The bank pointed out that the new strains of COVID could pose a risk to growth. In particular, they explained that if the current vaccines do not give a high degree of protection against the new COVID strains, then the spending boom which they forecasted this year might be delayed to 2022. In the bank’s own words, if the new strains require a new vaccine “Virus-sensitive spending would likely retrench while a new vaccine is developed, and although a new vaccine could be approved in less than five months, the consumption boom would likely be delayed until 2022”.

FINSUM: We are sure they made this admission with some frustration as GS has been quite bullish. That said, they did so because it is very realistic. It should be noted that most authorities say that the current vaccine should cover the new strains.

(New York)

With interest rates so low there has been increasing interest in the role that annuities can play for those near or entering retirement. Bonds just aren’t playing the dual roles of safe haven and income source that they once did, and annuities are a naturally inheritor of that role for the foreseeable future. However, one thing that many are not clear about is how well fixed and variable annuities can work together. While fixed annuities offer guaranteed income, they are susceptible to inflation. Accordingly, many retirees might also want to have some upside that will allow their payouts to move higher. Enter variable annuities, which can offer enhanced income in up markets (but do risk lower payments in down markets).

FINSUM: Fixed and variable annuities work well as a pair. The portion invested in fixed offers guaranteed income, while the variable portion offers upside potential.

(Washington)

Munis bonds have done well recently, but the ultra-low rate environment seems to have confused many about their relevance. It is critical to remember that despite yields being so low, munis still very much have a place in the environment. In fact, one could argue the current environment is better for munis than a more conventional one. The reason why is that munis still have a major spread advantage versus taxable equivalents. For example, while munis only yield an average of 0.86% right now, that translates to a taxable yield of 1.53% for those in the top income bracket. However, as we all know, Treasury yields are still much nearer to 1%, meaning munis current enjoy a major advantage over taxable bonds.

FINSUM: Given Biden and the Democrats’ support of state and local municipalities, and munis’ currently yield advantage, there is no reason for the asset class not to have a great year.

(Washington)

President Biden wasted no time in appointing a new Department of Labor chief. He has named Martin Walsh as Secretary of Labor. Walsh is currently the mayor of Boston and his history offers some insights into what his agenda may be. The Democrats have made very clear that one key component of their agenda is to undue the current DOL 2.0 rule and revamp it with a much stricter Obama era-like rule. That said, the naming of Walsh slightly complicates that picture. He was a union leader in Massachusetts and Biden has celebrated that Walsh is the first union member to lead the DOL in over half a century. Therefore, most think his immediate focus will be on workers’ rights issues and the gig economy rather than on wealth management.

FINSUM: It is hard to say how this will play out, but the naming of Walsh certainly makes it seem like a new rule may be slower in coming than some have feared.

Gold had a very strong 2020 as investors feared chaos from the pandemic. See the full story here on our partner Magnifi's site