Displaying items by tag: rates

Emerging markets have faced a challenging year, but they remain essential for achieving greater portfolio diversification. According to insights from the Natixis 2025 Institutional Outlook Survey, many institutional investors anticipate robust growth in these markets next year, with monetary policy shifts expected to play a significant role in driving expansion. 

However, China’s economic struggles, including a weak real estate market and reduced consumer spending, have tempered enthusiasm, leading investors to focus on other opportunities. India is gaining traction as a standout emerging market, with many predicting it will surpass China as a top investment destination, while regions like Asia ex-China and Latin America are also drawing attention. 

Though uncertainties persist, adopting a long-term approach to investing in emerging markets can yield strong growth potential as global economic conditions evolve. This strategy allows investors to tap into the transformative opportunities these markets continue to offer.

Finsum: With high risk and growth opportunities, its important to caution clients on the risks and that term is baked into the picture. 

The US economy surprised expectations in 2024 by maintaining steady growth despite elevated interest rates, a cooling labor market, and political uncertainty tied to the presidential election. It outpaced other Group of Seven nations, with household spending driving much of this resilience. 

Wage growth outstripped inflation, and record household wealth bolstered consumer confidence, even as Americans depleted pandemic-era savings. 

However, challenges loomed: inflation proved stubborn, borrowing costs strained housing and manufacturing, and delinquencies rose among credit-dependent consumers. Labor market signals also hinted at strain, with hiring slowing, job openings shrinking, and unemployment rates ticking up. 

Finsum: While the Federal Reserve began easing rates later in the year, its cautious stance underscores the delicate balance needed to sustain growth amid persistent inflationary pressures.

Innovator Capital Management has launched a new ETF targeting the Russell 2000, adding to its Managed Floor suite. This ETF offers small-cap exposure with a built-in downside cushion, limiting potential losses to around 10% over a rolling 12-month period. 

Unlike traditional defined outcome ETFs that lock in a fixed downside and upside cap, this fund employs a laddered options strategy for more flexibility and dynamic risk management. As volatility looms due to uncertainties around the election and interest rates, the fund aims to attract investors who are cautious about small-cap risks but still want exposure. 

This move capitalizes on increased investor interest in small-caps while addressing concerns about potential market downturns. Ultimately, Innovator's strategy is designed to provide both growth opportunities and a safeguard against significant losses.

Finsum: Small caps can outperform in a falling rate environment and this could be a great option for new buffer ETF investors. 

Interest rates are on the decline, yet economic growth remains steady. As the year wraps up, investors are feeling optimistic despite some slowdown in growth, which is occurring gradually rather than sharply. 

With more clarity around interest rate movements, Alliance Bernstein anticipate increased investor confidence, which should spur capital formation and boost private market transactions. Lower borrowing costs, following the sharp rise in recent years, are expected to encourage mergers and acquisitions as well as demand for middle market loans. 

Additionally, the trend of bank disintermediation is creating new opportunities for private credit investors to diversify and grow their portfolios. Overall, navigating this evolving economic landscape will require a focus on quality and thoughtful diversification to manage risks effectively.

Finsum: We expect lower rates to facilitate further expansion of private credit as there is more consumer spending to support investments. 

Stronger-than-expected U.S. job growth could challenge recent market strategies that anticipated falling interest rates. Many investors had bet on steep Fed rate cuts, pushing up Treasury prices and weakening the dollar, but Friday's labor report, which exceeded expectations, may lead to fewer cuts. 

The dollar has already rebounded sharply, while Treasury yields have risen, reversing recent declines. Some investors may now need to reconsider positions in sectors like utilities, which thrived on expectations of lower yields. 

In the broader stock market, investors could chase further gains, though rising bond yields may temper the appeal of equities. Overall, the economic data points to more uncertainty in rate predictions and market behavior.

Finsum: We don’t expect the Fed to deviate from the planned path too much, but monitoring labor markets will be key to getting a fully informed decision about future rate cuts.