Displaying items by tag: fed

Vanguard, managing over $9 trillion in assets, favors high-rated corporate debt over riskier high-yield bonds to guard against potential economic downturns caused by high borrowing costs. 

Despite expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by September due to cooling inflation and labor market weakness, Vanguard predicts rates will hold steady this year. 

High demand for investment-grade bonds has compressed credit spreads, but Vanguard's defensive strategy, along with its active fixed income management, is poised to perform well if the economy weakens, allowing for credit additions at more attractive prices.

Finsum: Active managers will be eyeing fall fed decisions closely as they have a huge impact on bonds.

Declining inflation rates have ignited a bullish frenzy in the equity markets after a turbulent start to 2024. Financial experts highlight the pivotal role played by waning price pressures in propelling the recent stock market surge. 

Fueled by promising inflation trends and the burgeoning artificial intelligence sector, analysts have revised their year-end targets upwards for major stock indices like the S&P 500. Consecutive record highs across key benchmarks reflect investors' optimism, bolstered by lower-than-anticipated inflation readings. 

Economists interpret the recent data as a harbinger of potential interest rate cuts, marking significant progress towards the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target. While the Fed projects a solitary rate reduction in 2024, market sentiment leans towards two cuts. 

Finsum: The key will be how many cuts, if rates fall the cap to the market is very high.

Locking in current rates can be beneficial before the Fed cuts interest rates. Holding bonds until maturity offers potential yield, though buying individual bonds can be complex so investors should prioritize vehicles like SMAs to achieve the goals with less complexity. 

Additionally, scalable solutions like individual bonds in SMAs or iBonds ETFs can be used to build bond ladders, providing steadier income. Amid high interest rates and an inverted yield curve, bonds may outperform cash, especially during a Fed pause. 

Advisors can enhance portfolios by adding longer maturity exposures. ETFs and SMAs help add income and stability to portfolios before the next rate cycle while simplifying the approach.

Finsum: There is something to locking in yields, but keep in mind bond prices will fall if the fed cuts rates but holding to term will be beneficial

There are increasing concerns that a crisis is brewing in commercial real estate (CRE), as over the next couple of years, $2 trillion in CRE loans will need to be refinanced. Previously, there were hopes that macro conditions would soften, leading to lower rates and a more favorable lending environment. Instead, inflation has proven to be more resilient than expected, and expectations of Fed dovishness have been dialed back.

In addition to high rates, major challenges include decreasing demand for offices and rising vacancies, a stricter lending environment, and balance sheet woes at regional banks, which traditionally account for a large share of CRE lending. However, there is significant variance within the CRE market. Areas like data centers, hotels, and industrial buildings continue to show strength, while retail and multifamily exhibit more mixed performance.

If conditions worsen, there is a risk of spillover effects on the broader economy, including decreased lending activity due to losses at banks, lower tax revenue for local governments due to more vacancies and lower property values, and subsequent declines in hiring. However, the consensus continues to be that there won’t be a full-blown crisis as the sector is sufficiently diversified and continues to have strong credit performance despite adverse conditions.

Finsum: Investors should pay attention to the CRE market given the refinancing cliff and challenges posed by higher rates and a stricter lending environment. 

The first five months of 2024 have featured above-average volatility for fixed income due to inflation continuing to run hot and increased uncertainty about the Fed’s next move. Despite these headwinds, institutional investors have been increasing their allocations to long-duration Treasuries and high-quality, corporate bonds.

One factor is that there is increasing confidence that inflation and the economy will cool in the second half of the year, following a string of soft data. As a result, allocators seem comfortable adding long-duration bonds to lock in yields at these levels. Many seem intent on front-running the rally in fixed income that would be triggered by the prospect of Fed dovishness. According to Gershon Distenfeld of AllianceBernstein, “History shows pretty consistently that yields rally hard starting three to four months before the Fed actually starts cutting.” 

For investors who believe in this thesis, Vanguard has three long-duration bond ETFs. The Vanguard Long-Term Bond ETF is composed of US government, investment-grade corporate, and investment-grade international bonds with maturities greater than 10 years. For those who prefer sticking solely to bonds, the Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF tracks the Bloomberg US Long Treasury Bond Index, which is composed of bonds with maturities greater than 10 years old. 

Many allocators are adding duration exposure via high-quality corporates given higher yields vs. Treasuries. These borrowers would also benefit from rate cuts, which would reduce financing costs and boost margins. The Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond ETF tracks the Bloomberg US 10+ Year Corporate Bond Index, which is comprised of US investment-grade, fixed-rate debt issued by industrial, financial, and utilities with maturities greater than 10 years. 

Finsum: Interest is starting to pick up in long-duration bonds following softer than expected economic and inflation data, which is leading to more optimism that the Fed will cut rates later this year.