The commodities super cycle is closing or at least halting as many prices such as oil, wheat, and copper have begun to fall. This could be in line with the Fed’s objectives as they have interred the most aggressive tightening in over two decades, but it could be a recession ‘red flag’ similar to the inverted yield curve we have been seeing. Construction and consumption slowing would affect commodities prices, especially those like copper with wide uses, these price declines could be signs of severe contractions in the economic growth. Experts believe this could make a soft landing even less likely if commodities have softened already, however, there is still some bullishness that oil could turn around yet again with Russia and Ukraine still in conflict.

Finsum: If commodities slow, but we continue to get excellent jobs reports like the most recent June report it looks more like the soft landing than a slipping recession.