
FINSUM
How to Outperform with REITs
Everyone and their dog is searching for viable alternatives because omicron has the stock market skittish and there’s absolutely no yield in bond markets. This has many investors turning to REITs, but how do you find the outperformers. There are six key metrics to look out for: a high fund from operations, total cash from operations growth, high liquidity ratios, accelerated dividend growth rates, a good-sized market cap, and finally price gain. These are the most important factors when evaluating REITs. Some of the best examples in these leading categories are Prologis, Essential Properties, Innovative Industrial Properties, and Life Storage Inc.
FINSUM: Alternatives could have their most promising year yet with all the outflows from the bond market coming in.
The New Fiduciary Rule Would Hurt Retirement Income
There have been widespread attempts by the new administration and private financial companies to expand the access to retirement vehicles, but a ‘fiduciary only’ regulation will kill retirement hopes for many low-income communities. Nearly half of black families and almost two-thirds of Hispanic families have no retirement savings account, and a stricter fiduciary rule would make it virtually impossible for these communities to get access to financial securities like annuities which allow them access to guaranteed lifetime income. Previous strict fiduciary rules like in 2016 left 10 million small retirement account owners without financial advisor access and a new rule could have a similar impact. Regulators and public officials should look into alternative approaches if they are interested in building retirement savings in underserved communities.
FINSUM: Unintended consequences of policies most often impact those the policies are seeking to help!
Wealth Tax Back on Table in Biden Bill
Joe Manchin, Democratic Senator from West Virginia, made a splash last week when he pulled his support for the build back better citing a number of problems that keep him from backing the bill. However, this week Manchin did a 180 on the billionaire tax saying he would be willing to support it in a revised version of the bill. Manchin’s version of the bill includes many of the same spending appropriations such as pre-k care, climate change, and Obamacare, but omitted certain pieces like the child tax credit. Manchin’s vote is critical if Biden hopes to pass the bill, but with rising inflation, labor shortages, and spiking national debt, he’s still reluctant to throw his weight behind Biden’s bill.
FINSUM: Remember the House’s version of the bill didn’t include a billionaire tax, even if Manchin puts it back on the table it’s unlikely the final bill will include it.
Forget Beta; Fixed Income ETFs Give an Alpha Edge
The low rate environment has flipped the paradigm of many investors when it comes to the bond market, and most investors are leaning on higher-yield fixed income ETFs to augment their portfolios. Sure fixed-income ETFs are mainly used as a risk mitigator for most investors, but they also are the way to generate alpha. Investors can better manage the liquidity of Fixed income ETFs as opposed to individual bonds, so they pose fewer liquidity constraints when selling. With liquidity concerns off the table, investors can more freely move securities to look for an advantage of standard indices, hence alpha. On top of this, their broader exposure is a better source of risk mitigation as well.
FINSUM: Being able to flip a fixed income ETF faster than individual bonds is a leg up in decision making, and another reason to cast a wider net in the current fixed income market.
Goldman Just Got Very Bearish on 2022
Omicron is sweeping the U.S. and once again threatening to cripple the economy, already major airlines are canceling flights and potential Christmas plans. This makes moderate Dems walkout on the Build Back Better even more critical as the country could desperately be in need of stimulus at the moment. This caused Goldman to cut its GDP growth by 1% annualized in Q1 2022 and a half a percent in Q2. CPI rose at a 39-year record in November, which could make the possibility of a big BBB bill even less likely as price pressures deter policy makers. Goldman still sees the possibility that congress will aid a bit with the new omicron surging.
FINSUM: It’s tough to justify another trillion-dollar stimulus package with roaring inflation, and it might be futile with the Fed pumping the breaks; lookout for stagflation!