Finding a successful stock market predictor is like finding a needle in a haystack, but JPMorgan says they have the indicator, and now is the time to buy in the stock market. The buying guide is when the CBOE Volatility Index grows by over half of its one-month moving average. This has a near bulletproof historical record, only falling during recessions in the last 30 years. Markets gained an average of 9% in the equities in the two quarters after the metric was triggered. Overall, JPMorgan is bullish about the near future in equities and believes there is a lot of runway ahead.

Finsum: Metrics like this can be an anomaly or indicative of something structural underneath, still a recession isn’t out of question with Fed taper tantrum possibilities.

Vanguard turned the investing world upside down with the advent of index-based investing. In 2022 there could be a new predominant investment vehicle taking the reigns: custom indexing. However, this fad has failed to create traction globally the way it has in the US. The two keys that are preventing custom indexing from reaching the same level of success globally are technology and taxes. CI relies on the software tools and facilities to manage this algorithmic portfolio construction, and lots of global firms aren’t there yet. Additionally, tax-loss harvesting makes custom indexing wildly popular in the US, but those same advantages don’t exist in the fiscal structure of other countries.

Finsum: Many of the industry giants are buying up custom indexing firms left and right which will get rid of the technological barrier in custom indexing for countries around the globe.

Edward Jones and LPL are two industry titans in terms of total advisor employment, but these firms are moving in drastically different directions when it comes to talent acquisition and development. Once Jones had a 30,000 advisor target but since the pandemic, they have scaled back recruitment efforts and shifted strategy. This had their numbers dwindle by 2% year over year to 18,823 brokers. LPL on the other hand has doubled down on recruiting efforts and saw its head count surge by 15%. What drove this growth was a combination of new recruiting models and full-service firms and acquisitions. However, despite losing advisors Jones saw revenue grow by 22% from 2020 to 2021, because the rising markets increased the fee-based revenue.

Finsum: There are lots of transitional costs from squirting new talent: training, legal, etc in the short run this can eat at the bottom line when trying to grow.

Capital gains taxes vary based on a lot of factors. Those dwelling in California for example may pay up to capital gains like regular income for their state taxes, which can be brutal. However, variation in income and holding duration play a large part in the total expected payments for cap gains. Finally, medicare surtaxes for those couples with over a quarter of a million in income will face additional capital gains taxes. Investors should take early precautions at the beginning of 2022 to consider how to mitigate their tax bill for the upcoming year with tax-loss harvesting. Realizing certain losses in the middle of turmoil can minimize your final tax burden.

Finsum: There are great advantages in tax-loss harvesting that you can take advantage of in crypto still, and now might be a perfect time.

Everyone and their dog has been pivoting to ultra-short duration pseudo-cash bond ETFs in the fixed income balance of their portfolio and this is causing a sell-off of lots of corporate bond ETFs. LQD saw its fifth day of outflows which set a pandemic era record. This brought together a total of $856 million in investor outflows. This is part of a blogger trend where sentiment around investment-grade bonds is weakening. However, it's not because they are less likely to pay back but more a reflection of investment-grade corporate debt generally having a longer duration, which is the risk investors don’t want with upcoming rate hikes.

Finsum: The risk premium hasn’t changed with corporate debt just the term structure risk. Fundamentally these bonds could still be in a good place.