(New York)

More some time now, bonds have been sending worrying signals to investors. The huge plunge in yields has been seen as a warning sign that the economy may be headed south. However, more recently, fixed income is sending more comforting signals. In particular, the recent narrowing of corporate bond spreads. Bond spreads had been rising for some time, but have leveled off recently, showing fixed income investors are not as worried about the economy and corporate performance. The overall spread is still well below where it was in the 2015-2016 growth scare.

FINSUM: The leveling off of spreads is a good sign that some stability is coming back to the market.

(New York)

You might not think it is the right time for this stock, but Goldman Sachs says you should. The bank has just come out very positive on Ford. The automotive company has far outpaced the S&P 500 this year, but is still down 16% over the last 12 months. Goldman says that Wall Street is not appreciating how significant Ford’s recent restructuring is, as they think it can unlock “billions in trapped value” by lowering costs in the trucks division.

FINSUM: Basically, Goldman says Ford is going to see a big and sustained pop in earnings that no one sees coming. It is a nice, simple thesis and we like it.

(New York)

You may normally think of it in terms of stocks, but “buy low, sell high” applies to bonds just as much, and that is a good way to think of the market right now. With yields having fallen so far since last year, one strategist said it was time to accept the “the present the Fed has given us”, and swap out bonds for floating rate securities, which have lagged this rally. The scale of returns in the bond market is impressive. For instance, the iShares 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF has risen over 9% since the beginning of the year.

FINSUM: It seems unlikely to us that bond yields are going to drop much further, which means there is little reason to wait for further gains.

(New York)

Gold has been doing well, and it is no surprise as to why. Both the economy and the trade war are having a bullish effect on gold, which has responded in line with investor fears. Additionally, worries over tensions in the Middle East and the protests in Hong Kong have offered a short-term boost to prices. Stephen Innes, managing partner at Vanguard Markets, says “Today’s price action suggests the market is not long enough gold, especially by historical standards, for this elevated level risk as investors have remained far too complacent to mounting risk in Hong Kong and the smolder explosive political powder keg in the Middle East”.

FINSUM: Gold has been in a bear market for so long that it had many times seemed to have lost its role in a portfolio. However, it appears to once again be finding its footing.

(Houston)

Oil is looking likely to fall sharply, and not just because the world’s economy is looking soft. According to the IEA, oil supply is likely to dwarf demand next year, which will very likely lead to lower prices. Many new projects will come online, boosting oil supply far more than demand, which may only grow slightly, or even shrink if the economy heads downward. This will put more pressure on OPEC.

FINSUM: Nothing is looking bullish about oil other than geopolitical tensions (the effects of which tend to blow over quickly).